Bitcoin Has Halved—What Now? - Forbes

Why i’m bullish on Zilliqa (long read)

Edit: TL;DR added in the comments
 
Hey all, I've been researching coins since 2017 and have gone through 100s of them in the last 3 years. I got introduced to blockchain via Bitcoin of course, analyzed Ethereum thereafter and from that moment I have a keen interest in smart contact platforms. I’m passionate about Ethereum but I find Zilliqa to have a better risk-reward ratio. Especially because Zilliqa has found an elegant balance between being secure, decentralized and scalable in my opinion.
 
Below I post my analysis of why from all the coins I went through I’m most bullish on Zilliqa (yes I went through Tezos, EOS, NEO, VeChain, Harmony, Algorand, Cardano etc.). Note that this is not investment advice and although it's a thorough analysis there is obviously some bias involved. Looking forward to what you all think!
 
Fun fact: the name Zilliqa is a play on ‘silica’ silicon dioxide which means “Silicon for the high-throughput consensus computer.”
 
This post is divided into (i) Technology, (ii) Business & Partnerships, and (iii) Marketing & Community. I’ve tried to make the technology part readable for a broad audience. If you’ve ever tried understanding the inner workings of Bitcoin and Ethereum you should be able to grasp most parts. Otherwise, just skim through and once you are zoning out head to the next part.
 
Technology and some more:
 
Introduction
 
The technology is one of the main reasons why I’m so bullish on Zilliqa. First thing you see on their website is: “Zilliqa is a high-performance, high-security blockchain platform for enterprises and next-generation applications.” These are some bold statements.
 
Before we deep dive into the technology let’s take a step back in time first as they have quite the history. The initial research paper from which Zilliqa originated dates back to August 2016: Elastico: A Secure Sharding Protocol For Open Blockchains where Loi Luu (Kyber Network) is one of the co-authors. Other ideas that led to the development of what Zilliqa has become today are: Bitcoin-NG, collective signing CoSi, ByzCoin and Omniledger.
 
The technical white paper was made public in August 2017 and since then they have achieved everything stated in the white paper and also created their own open source intermediate level smart contract language called Scilla (functional programming language similar to OCaml) too.
 
Mainnet is live since the end of January 2019 with daily transaction rates growing continuously. About a week ago mainnet reached 5 million transactions, 500.000+ addresses in total along with 2400 nodes keeping the network decentralized and secure. Circulating supply is nearing 11 billion and currently only mining rewards are left. The maximum supply is 21 billion with annual inflation being 7.13% currently and will only decrease with time.
 
Zilliqa realized early on that the usage of public cryptocurrencies and smart contracts were increasing but decentralized, secure, and scalable alternatives were lacking in the crypto space. They proposed to apply sharding onto a public smart contract blockchain where the transaction rate increases almost linear with the increase in the amount of nodes. More nodes = higher transaction throughput and increased decentralization. Sharding comes in many forms and Zilliqa uses network-, transaction- and computational sharding. Network sharding opens up the possibility of using transaction- and computational sharding on top. Zilliqa does not use state sharding for now. We’ll come back to this later.
 
Before we continue dissecting how Zilliqa achieves such from a technological standpoint it’s good to keep in mind that a blockchain being decentralised and secure and scalable is still one of the main hurdles in allowing widespread usage of decentralised networks. In my opinion this needs to be solved first before blockchains can get to the point where they can create and add large scale value. So I invite you to read the next section to grasp the underlying fundamentals. Because after all these premises need to be true otherwise there isn’t a fundamental case to be bullish on Zilliqa, right?
 
Down the rabbit hole
 
How have they achieved this? Let’s define the basics first: key players on Zilliqa are the users and the miners. A user is anybody who uses the blockchain to transfer funds or run smart contracts. Miners are the (shard) nodes in the network who run the consensus protocol and get rewarded for their service in Zillings (ZIL). The mining network is divided into several smaller networks called shards, which is also referred to as ‘network sharding’. Miners subsequently are randomly assigned to a shard by another set of miners called DS (Directory Service) nodes. The regular shards process transactions and the outputs of these shards are eventually combined by the DS shard as they reach consensus on the final state. More on how these DS shards reach consensus (via pBFT) will be explained later on.
 
The Zilliqa network produces two types of blocks: DS blocks and Tx blocks. One DS Block consists of 100 Tx Blocks. And as previously mentioned there are two types of nodes concerned with reaching consensus: shard nodes and DS nodes. Becoming a shard node or DS node is being defined by the result of a PoW cycle (Ethash) at the beginning of the DS Block. All candidate mining nodes compete with each other and run the PoW (Proof-of-Work) cycle for 60 seconds and the submissions achieving the highest difficulty will be allowed on the network. And to put it in perspective: the average difficulty for one DS node is ~ 2 Th/s equaling 2.000.000 Mh/s or 55 thousand+ GeForce GTX 1070 / 8 GB GPUs at 35.4 Mh/s. Each DS Block 10 new DS nodes are allowed. And a shard node needs to provide around 8.53 GH/s currently (around 240 GTX 1070s). Dual mining ETH/ETC and ZIL is possible and can be done via mining software such as Phoenix and Claymore. There are pools and if you have large amounts of hashing power (Ethash) available you could mine solo.
 
The PoW cycle of 60 seconds is a peak performance and acts as an entry ticket to the network. The entry ticket is called a sybil resistance mechanism and makes it incredibly hard for adversaries to spawn lots of identities and manipulate the network with these identities. And after every 100 Tx Blocks which corresponds to roughly 1,5 hour this PoW process repeats. In between these 1,5 hour, no PoW needs to be done meaning Zilliqa’s energy consumption to keep the network secure is low. For more detailed information on how mining works click here.
Okay, hats off to you. You have made it this far. Before we go any deeper down the rabbit hole we first must understand why Zilliqa goes through all of the above technicalities and understand a bit more what a blockchain on a more fundamental level is. Because the core of Zilliqa’s consensus protocol relies on the usage of pBFT (practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance) we need to know more about state machines and their function. Navigate to Viewblock, a Zilliqa block explorer, and just come back to this article. We will use this site to navigate through a few concepts.
 
We have established that Zilliqa is a public and distributed blockchain. Meaning that everyone with an internet connection can send ZILs, trigger smart contracts, etc. and there is no central authority who fully controls the network. Zilliqa and other public and distributed blockchains (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) can also be defined as state machines.
 
Taking the liberty of paraphrasing examples and definitions given by Samuel Brooks’ medium article, he describes the definition of a blockchain (like Zilliqa) as: “A peer-to-peer, append-only datastore that uses consensus to synchronize cryptographically-secure data”.
 
Next, he states that: "blockchains are fundamentally systems for managing valid state transitions”. For some more context, I recommend reading the whole medium article to get a better grasp of the definitions and understanding of state machines. Nevertheless, let’s try to simplify and compile it into a single paragraph. Take traffic lights as an example: all its states (red, amber, and green) are predefined, all possible outcomes are known and it doesn’t matter if you encounter the traffic light today or tomorrow. It will still behave the same. Managing the states of a traffic light can be done by triggering a sensor on the road or pushing a button resulting in one traffic lights’ state going from green to red (via amber) and another light from red to green.
 
With public blockchains like Zilliqa, this isn’t so straightforward and simple. It started with block #1 almost 1,5 years ago and every 45 seconds or so a new block linked to the previous block is being added. Resulting in a chain of blocks with transactions in it that everyone can verify from block #1 to the current #647.000+ block. The state is ever changing and the states it can find itself in are infinite. And while the traffic light might work together in tandem with various other traffic lights, it’s rather insignificant comparing it to a public blockchain. Because Zilliqa consists of 2400 nodes who need to work together to achieve consensus on what the latest valid state is while some of these nodes may have latency or broadcast issues, drop offline or are deliberately trying to attack the network, etc.
 
Now go back to the Viewblock page take a look at the amount of transaction, addresses, block and DS height and then hit refresh. Obviously as expected you see new incremented values on one or all parameters. And how did the Zilliqa blockchain manage to transition from a previous valid state to the latest valid state? By using pBFT to reach consensus on the latest valid state.
 
After having obtained the entry ticket, miners execute pBFT to reach consensus on the ever-changing state of the blockchain. pBFT requires a series of network communication between nodes, and as such there is no GPU involved (but CPU). Resulting in the total energy consumed to keep the blockchain secure, decentralized and scalable being low.
 
pBFT stands for practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance and is an optimization on the Byzantine Fault Tolerant algorithm. To quote Blockonomi: “In the context of distributed systems, Byzantine Fault Tolerance is the ability of a distributed computer network to function as desired and correctly reach a sufficient consensus despite malicious components (nodes) of the system failing or propagating incorrect information to other peers.” Zilliqa is such a distributed computer network and depends on the honesty of the nodes (shard and DS) to reach consensus and to continuously update the state with the latest block. If pBFT is a new term for you I can highly recommend the Blockonomi article.
 
The idea of pBFT was introduced in 1999 - one of the authors even won a Turing award for it - and it is well researched and applied in various blockchains and distributed systems nowadays. If you want more advanced information than the Blockonomi link provides click here. And if you’re in between Blockonomi and the University of Singapore read the Zilliqa Design Story Part 2 dating from October 2017.
Quoting from the Zilliqa tech whitepaper: “pBFT relies upon a correct leader (which is randomly selected) to begin each phase and proceed when the sufficient majority exists. In case the leader is byzantine it can stall the entire consensus protocol. To address this challenge, pBFT offers a view change protocol to replace the byzantine leader with another one.”
 
pBFT can tolerate ⅓ of the nodes being dishonest (offline counts as Byzantine = dishonest) and the consensus protocol will function without stalling or hiccups. Once there are more than ⅓ of dishonest nodes but no more than ⅔ the network will be stalled and a view change will be triggered to elect a new DS leader. Only when more than ⅔ of the nodes are dishonest (66%) double-spend attacks become possible.
 
If the network stalls no transactions can be processed and one has to wait until a new honest leader has been elected. When the mainnet was just launched and in its early phases, view changes happened regularly. As of today the last stalling of the network - and view change being triggered - was at the end of October 2019.
 
Another benefit of using pBFT for consensus besides low energy is the immediate finality it provides. Once your transaction is included in a block and the block is added to the chain it’s done. Lastly, take a look at this article where three types of finality are being defined: probabilistic, absolute and economic finality. Zilliqa falls under the absolute finality (just like Tendermint for example). Although lengthy already we skipped through some of the inner workings from Zilliqa’s consensus: read the Zilliqa Design Story Part 3 and you will be close to having a complete picture on it. Enough about PoW, sybil resistance mechanism, pBFT, etc. Another thing we haven’t looked at yet is the amount of decentralization.
 
Decentralisation
 
Currently, there are four shards, each one of them consisting of 600 nodes. 1 shard with 600 so-called DS nodes (Directory Service - they need to achieve a higher difficulty than shard nodes) and 1800 shard nodes of which 250 are shard guards (centralized nodes controlled by the team). The amount of shard guards has been steadily declining from 1200 in January 2019 to 250 as of May 2020. On the Viewblock statistics, you can see that many of the nodes are being located in the US but those are only the (CPU parts of the) shard nodes who perform pBFT. There is no data from where the PoW sources are coming. And when the Zilliqa blockchain starts reaching its transaction capacity limit, a network upgrade needs to be executed to lift the current cap of maximum 2400 nodes to allow more nodes and formation of more shards which will allow to network to keep on scaling according to demand.
Besides shard nodes there are also seed nodes. The main role of seed nodes is to serve as direct access points (for end-users and clients) to the core Zilliqa network that validates transactions. Seed nodes consolidate transaction requests and forward these to the lookup nodes (another type of nodes) for distribution to the shards in the network. Seed nodes also maintain the entire transaction history and the global state of the blockchain which is needed to provide services such as block explorers. Seed nodes in the Zilliqa network are comparable to Infura on Ethereum.
 
The seed nodes were first only operated by Zilliqa themselves, exchanges and Viewblock. Operators of seed nodes like exchanges had no incentive to open them for the greater public. They were centralised at first. Decentralisation at the seed nodes level has been steadily rolled out since March 2020 ( Zilliqa Improvement Proposal 3 ). Currently the amount of seed nodes is being increased, they are public-facing and at the same time PoS is applied to incentivize seed node operators and make it possible for ZIL holders to stake and earn passive yields. Important distinction: seed nodes are not involved with consensus! That is still PoW as entry ticket and pBFT for the actual consensus.
 
5% of the block rewards are being assigned to seed nodes (from the beginning in 2019) and those are being used to pay out ZIL stakers. The 5% block rewards with an annual yield of 10.03% translate to roughly 610 MM ZILs in total that can be staked. Exchanges use the custodial variant of staking and wallets like Moonlet will use the non-custodial version (starting in Q3 2020). Staking is being done by sending ZILs to a smart contract created by Zilliqa and audited by Quantstamp.
 
With a high amount of DS; shard nodes and seed nodes becoming more decentralized too, Zilliqa qualifies for the label of decentralized in my opinion.
 
Smart contracts
 
Let me start by saying I’m not a developer and my programming skills are quite limited. So I‘m taking the ELI5 route (maybe 12) but if you are familiar with Javascript, Solidity or specifically OCaml please head straight to Scilla - read the docs to get a good initial grasp of how Zilliqa’s smart contract language Scilla works and if you ask yourself “why another programming language?” check this article. And if you want to play around with some sample contracts in an IDE click here. The faucet can be found here. And more information on architecture, dapp development and API can be found on the Developer Portal.
If you are more into listening and watching: check this recent webinar explaining Zilliqa and Scilla. Link is time-stamped so you’ll start right away with a platform introduction, roadmap 2020 and afterwards a proper Scilla introduction.
 
Generalized: programming languages can be divided into being ‘object-oriented’ or ‘functional’. Here is an ELI5 given by software development academy: * “all programs have two basic components, data – what the program knows – and behavior – what the program can do with that data. So object-oriented programming states that combining data and related behaviors in one place, is called “object”, which makes it easier to understand how a particular program works. On the other hand, functional programming argues that data and behavior are different things and should be separated to ensure their clarity.” *
 
Scilla is on the functional side and shares similarities with OCaml: OCaml is a general-purpose programming language with an emphasis on expressiveness and safety. It has an advanced type system that helps catch your mistakes without getting in your way. It's used in environments where a single mistake can cost millions and speed matters, is supported by an active community, and has a rich set of libraries and development tools. For all its power, OCaml is also pretty simple, which is one reason it's often used as a teaching language.
 
Scilla is blockchain agnostic, can be implemented onto other blockchains as well, is recognized by academics and won a so-called Distinguished Artifact Award award at the end of last year.
 
One of the reasons why the Zilliqa team decided to create their own programming language focused on preventing smart contract vulnerabilities is that adding logic on a blockchain, programming, means that you cannot afford to make mistakes. Otherwise, it could cost you. It’s all great and fun blockchains being immutable but updating your code because you found a bug isn’t the same as with a regular web application for example. And with smart contracts, it inherently involves cryptocurrencies in some form thus value.
 
Another difference with programming languages on a blockchain is gas. Every transaction you do on a smart contract platform like Zilliqa or Ethereum costs gas. With gas you basically pay for computational costs. Sending a ZIL from address A to address B costs 0.001 ZIL currently. Smart contracts are more complex, often involve various functions and require more gas (if gas is a new concept click here ).
 
So with Scilla, similar to Solidity, you need to make sure that “every function in your smart contract will run as expected without hitting gas limits. An improper resource analysis may lead to situations where funds may get stuck simply because a part of the smart contract code cannot be executed due to gas limits. Such constraints are not present in traditional software systems”. Scilla design story part 1
 
Some examples of smart contract issues you’d want to avoid are: leaking funds, ‘unexpected changes to critical state variables’ (example: someone other than you setting his or her address as the owner of the smart contract after creation) or simply killing a contract.
 
Scilla also allows for formal verification. Wikipedia to the rescue: In the context of hardware and software systems, formal verification is the act of proving or disproving the correctness of intended algorithms underlying a system with respect to a certain formal specification or property, using formal methods of mathematics.
 
Formal verification can be helpful in proving the correctness of systems such as: cryptographic protocols, combinational circuits, digital circuits with internal memory, and software expressed as source code.
 
Scilla is being developed hand-in-hand with formalization of its semantics and its embedding into the Coq proof assistant — a state-of-the art tool for mechanized proofs about properties of programs.”
 
Simply put, with Scilla and accompanying tooling developers can be mathematically sure and proof that the smart contract they’ve written does what he or she intends it to do.
 
Smart contract on a sharded environment and state sharding
 
There is one more topic I’d like to touch on: smart contract execution in a sharded environment (and what is the effect of state sharding). This is a complex topic. I’m not able to explain it any easier than what is posted here. But I will try to compress the post into something easy to digest.
 
Earlier on we have established that Zilliqa can process transactions in parallel due to network sharding. This is where the linear scalability comes from. We can define simple transactions: a transaction from address A to B (Category 1), a transaction where a user interacts with one smart contract (Category 2) and the most complex ones where triggering a transaction results in multiple smart contracts being involved (Category 3). The shards are able to process transactions on their own without interference of the other shards. With Category 1 transactions that is doable, with Category 2 transactions sometimes if that address is in the same shard as the smart contract but with Category 3 you definitely need communication between the shards. Solving that requires to make a set of communication rules the protocol needs to follow in order to process all transactions in a generalised fashion.
 
And this is where the downsides of state sharding comes in currently. All shards in Zilliqa have access to the complete state. Yes the state size (0.1 GB at the moment) grows and all of the nodes need to store it but it also means that they don’t need to shop around for information available on other shards. Requiring more communication and adding more complexity. Computer science knowledge and/or developer knowledge required links if you want to dig further: Scilla - language grammar Scilla - Foundations for Verifiable Decentralised Computations on a Blockchain Gas Accounting NUS x Zilliqa: Smart contract language workshop
 
Easier to follow links on programming Scilla https://learnscilla.com/home Ivan on Tech
 
Roadmap / Zilliqa 2.0
 
There is no strict defined roadmap but here are topics being worked on. And via the Zilliqa website there is also more information on the projects they are working on.
 
Business & Partnerships
 
It’s not only technology in which Zilliqa seems to be excelling as their ecosystem has been expanding and starting to grow rapidly. The project is on a mission to provide OpenFinance (OpFi) to the world and Singapore is the right place to be due to its progressive regulations and futuristic thinking. Singapore has taken a proactive approach towards cryptocurrencies by introducing the Payment Services Act 2019 (PS Act). Among other things, the PS Act will regulate intermediaries dealing with certain cryptocurrencies, with a particular focus on consumer protection and anti-money laundering. It will also provide a stable regulatory licensing and operating framework for cryptocurrency entities, effectively covering all crypto businesses and exchanges based in Singapore. According to PWC 82% of the surveyed executives in Singapore reported blockchain initiatives underway and 13% of them have already brought the initiatives live to the market. There is also an increasing list of organizations that are starting to provide digital payment services. Moreover, Singaporean blockchain developers Building Cities Beyond has recently created an innovation $15 million grant to encourage development on its ecosystem. This all suggests that Singapore tries to position itself as (one of) the leading blockchain hubs in the world.
 
Zilliqa seems to already take advantage of this and recently helped launch Hg Exchange on their platform, together with financial institutions PhillipCapital, PrimePartners and Fundnel. Hg Exchange, which is now approved by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), uses smart contracts to represent digital assets. Through Hg Exchange financial institutions worldwide can use Zilliqa's safe-by-design smart contracts to enable the trading of private equities. For example, think of companies such as Grab, Airbnb, SpaceX that are not available for public trading right now. Hg Exchange will allow investors to buy shares of private companies & unicorns and capture their value before an IPO. Anquan, the main company behind Zilliqa, has also recently announced that they became a partner and shareholder in TEN31 Bank, which is a fully regulated bank allowing for tokenization of assets and is aiming to bridge the gap between conventional banking and the blockchain world. If STOs, the tokenization of assets, and equity trading will continue to increase, then Zilliqa’s public blockchain would be the ideal candidate due to its strategic positioning, partnerships, regulatory compliance and the technology that is being built on top of it.
 
What is also very encouraging is their focus on banking the un(der)banked. They are launching a stablecoin basket starting with XSGD. As many of you know, stablecoins are currently mostly used for trading. However, Zilliqa is actively trying to broaden the use case of stablecoins. I recommend everybody to read this text that Amrit Kumar wrote (one of the co-founders). These stablecoins will be integrated in the traditional markets and bridge the gap between the crypto world and the traditional world. This could potentially revolutionize and legitimise the crypto space if retailers and companies will for example start to use stablecoins for payments or remittances, instead of it solely being used for trading.
 
Zilliqa also released their DeFi strategic roadmap (dating November 2019) which seems to be aligning well with their OpFi strategy. A non-custodial DEX is coming to Zilliqa made by Switcheo which allows cross-chain trading (atomic swaps) between ETH, EOS and ZIL based tokens. They also signed a Memorandum of Understanding for a (soon to be announced) USD stablecoin. And as Zilliqa is all about regulations and being compliant, I’m speculating on it to be a regulated USD stablecoin. Furthermore, XSGD is already created and visible on block explorer and XIDR (Indonesian Stablecoin) is also coming soon via StraitsX. Here also an overview of the Tech Stack for Financial Applications from September 2019. Further quoting Amrit Kumar on this:
 
There are two basic building blocks in DeFi/OpFi though: 1) stablecoins as you need a non-volatile currency to get access to this market and 2) a dex to be able to trade all these financial assets. The rest are built on top of these blocks.
 
So far, together with our partners and community, we have worked on developing these building blocks with XSGD as a stablecoin. We are working on bringing a USD-backed stablecoin as well. We will soon have a decentralised exchange developed by Switcheo. And with HGX going live, we are also venturing into the tokenization space. More to come in the future.”
 
Additionally, they also have this ZILHive initiative that injects capital into projects. There have been already 6 waves of various teams working on infrastructure, innovation and research, and they are not from ASEAN or Singapore only but global: see Grantees breakdown by country. Over 60 project teams from over 20 countries have contributed to Zilliqa's ecosystem. This includes individuals and teams developing wallets, explorers, developer toolkits, smart contract testing frameworks, dapps, etc. As some of you may know, Unstoppable Domains (UD) blew up when they launched on Zilliqa. UD aims to replace cryptocurrency addresses with a human-readable name and allows for uncensorable websites. Zilliqa will probably be the only one able to handle all these transactions onchain due to ability to scale and its resulting low fees which is why the UD team launched this on Zilliqa in the first place. Furthermore, Zilliqa also has a strong emphasis on security, compliance, and privacy, which is why they partnered with companies like Elliptic, ChainSecurity (part of PwC Switzerland), and Incognito. Their sister company Aqilliz (Zilliqa spelled backwards) focuses on revolutionizing the digital advertising space and is doing interesting things like using Zilliqa to track outdoor digital ads with companies like Foodpanda.
 
Zilliqa is listed on nearly all major exchanges, having several different fiat-gateways and recently have been added to Binance’s margin trading and futures trading with really good volume. They also have a very impressive team with good credentials and experience. They don't just have “tech people”. They have a mix of tech people, business people, marketeers, scientists, and more. Naturally, it's good to have a mix of people with different skill sets if you work in the crypto space.
 
Marketing & Community
 
Zilliqa has a very strong community. If you just follow their Twitter their engagement is much higher for a coin that has approximately 80k followers. They also have been ‘coin of the day’ by LunarCrush many times. LunarCrush tracks real-time cryptocurrency value and social data. According to their data, it seems Zilliqa has a more fundamental and deeper understanding of marketing and community engagement than almost all other coins. While almost all coins have been a bit frozen in the last months, Zilliqa seems to be on its own bull run. It was somewhere in the 100s a few months ago and is currently ranked #46 on CoinGecko. Their official Telegram also has over 20k people and is very active, and their community channel which is over 7k now is more active and larger than many other official channels. Their local communities also seem to be growing.
 
Moreover, their community started ‘Zillacracy’ together with the Zilliqa core team ( see www.zillacracy.com ). It’s a community-run initiative where people from all over the world are now helping with marketing and development on Zilliqa. Since its launch in February 2020 they have been doing a lot and will also run their own non-custodial seed node for staking. This seed node will also allow them to start generating revenue for them to become a self sustaining entity that could potentially scale up to become a decentralized company working in parallel with the Zilliqa core team. Comparing it to all the other smart contract platforms (e.g. Cardano, EOS, Tezos etc.) they don't seem to have started a similar initiative (correct me if I’m wrong though). This suggests in my opinion that these other smart contract platforms do not fully understand how to utilize the ‘power of the community’. This is something you cannot ‘buy with money’ and gives many projects in the space a disadvantage.
 
Zilliqa also released two social products called SocialPay and Zeeves. SocialPay allows users to earn ZILs while tweeting with a specific hashtag. They have recently used it in partnership with the Singapore Red Cross for a marketing campaign after their initial pilot program. It seems like a very valuable social product with a good use case. I can see a lot of traditional companies entering the space through this product, which they seem to suggest will happen. Tokenizing hashtags with smart contracts to get network effect is a very smart and innovative idea.
 
Regarding Zeeves, this is a tipping bot for Telegram. They already have 1000s of signups and they plan to keep upgrading it for more and more people to use it (e.g. they recently have added a quiz features). They also use it during AMAs to reward people in real-time. It’s a very smart approach to grow their communities and get familiar with ZIL. I can see this becoming very big on Telegram. This tool suggests, again, that the Zilliqa team has a deeper understanding of what the crypto space and community needs and is good at finding the right innovative tools to grow and scale.
 
To be honest, I haven’t covered everything (i’m also reaching the character limited haha). So many updates happening lately that it's hard to keep up, such as the International Monetary Fund mentioning Zilliqa in their report, custodial and non-custodial Staking, Binance Margin, Futures, Widget, entering the Indian market, and more. The Head of Marketing Colin Miles has also released this as an overview of what is coming next. And last but not least, Vitalik Buterin has been mentioning Zilliqa lately acknowledging Zilliqa and mentioning that both projects have a lot of room to grow. There is much more info of course and a good part of it has been served to you on a silver platter. I invite you to continue researching by yourself :-) And if you have any comments or questions please post here!
submitted by haveyouheardaboutit to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Overnight Gappers (updated until open) $NOVN $SNSS $CAPR $RIOT $MARA & More 7/27

Hope everyone had a good weekend, be sure to drop any news in I might have missed!
Twitter - @ ThesisRobot
$NOVN - has a stockholder meeting tomorrow where people are expecting an update on the COVID treatment they are supposed to be working on. There is also a reverse split vote in that meeting.
$SNSS - BIogen Buyout rumors from what I can tell, regarding some patents they apparently want.
$HTBX - At the Market Offering - Pursuant to this prospectus supplement or the prospectus supplement we may offer and sell shares of our common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $100,000,000 from time to time through or to B. Riley FBR acting as sales agent or principal.
$MARA & $RIOT - Bitcoin plays
$CAPR started running friday off of a Lionmaster pump on friday he said - "the DMD event (weekend) and DMD data will be out any day now and the homerun if we get fast track submission as indicated. This stock is 500% upside and practically no downside. Also the Covid19 drug and vaccine CC updates and news be out soon."
$SOGO - Not sure the news here, but this one could get pumped by Ross this morning. Possible short squeeze with 6 m shares short
$EMAN - This came out friday but official PR today - a leader in the development, design and manufacture of Active Matrix OLED microdisplays used in military and commercial AVR devices, and other near-eye imaging products, today announced it has been awarded a $33.6 million contract over the next thirty three months from the Department of Defense (DoD)
$SCKT - a leading innovator of data capture and delivery solutions for enhanced productivity, is delighted to introduce its newest member of the scanning sled family - DuraSled™ for the XCover Pro. There are two versions of the XCover Pro DuraSled: the DS800 XCover Pro for 1D barcode scanning and the DS840 XCover Pro for 1D and 2D barcode scanning, respectively.
FRSX - an innovator in automotive vision systems, announced today the sale of two prototypes of its QuadSight® four-camera vision system to the automotive solutions business unit of a multi-billion dollar Chinese technology company.
submitted by ThesisRobot to pennystocks [link] [comments]

I always miss the big moves

Ive been trading consistently (and profitably) for about a year and a half using a strategy that I outlined here.
I've been studying alot more and trying to trade a bit more actively while dialing in my entry and exits more precisely and doing more post-facto analysis of my trades.
One thing I've noticed is that while I somehow manage to do well on risk management and preserving my capital (most important, by far) I always seem to miss out on major price movements even in situations where I'm fully aware that they will and/or are happening.
For instance, I trade bitcoin often, which recently had a major breakout from a descending triangle. I was pretty confident the breakout would be bullish, clearly identified the breakout when it first happened, watched the breakout be confirmed and extended. And currently watching the price hit a 10 week high - all the while Ive profited just modestly on much smaller price action within the breakout.
And it seems that in every case, my entry and exit strategies are set up such that I will miss the most significant and profitable price movements.
The reason for this is that it only makes sense for me to enter (long) on a downturn. Buy low sell high, right? It simply doesn't make sense for me to buy when the price is at some local or absolute high - there's resistance, most buyers are out of the market. And generally speaking, why buy something when it's the most expensive? If the price of cars suddenly drops 10% across the board, all things being equal, you bet your ass people are going to go out and buy some cars, even if they're not even particularly in the market for one. A drop in price is one of the best indicators for a subsequent increase in price.
In the past I would just wait and let the price drop ~2-4% give or take and enter (as it says in the link to my strategy above) but now I try to be a bit more precise about it, using fibonacci retracements, price action support, and smaller time frames to dial-in the entry point, which has helped.
My exit strategy has a lot to be desired but generally speaking, I take profits based on price action. resistance, fib extensions, but more typically (and stupidly) on raw dollar amounts - "you can have this $150 if you just press this button" Ok mE PrESS MuNeY BuTtUn
I've also experimented with taking a portion of profits while I'm sufficiently in the green and setting a stop-loss 1% or so above my entry price. This locks in a win and allows for continued price movement. But the downside is obviously that is makes any further price action that much less potent. Fear & Greed
All this is to say that my strategy leaves no room for letting profits ride or entering a position during a breakout, as both of those often involve buying after a lot of buying as already happened, or holding after a lot of buying has already happened. (I'm speaking in terms of long positions). How many more buyers can there possibly be in the market - better dump this crap now. Fear & Greed
And then there are situations where a breakout is happening and I enter the trade in the direction of the breakout, only find myself last in line for the gang bang. Everyones done and I'm standing there like a clown with a boner
Like I said, so far this strategy has been profitable and I'm learning to dial it in better while focusing on risk management. But ultimately, I'd like to make some respectable money with all this and it seems like systematically leaving the big moves off the table makes that goal that much more difficult to attain.
Can anyone offer any advice for better capturing major price movements?
submitted by gusmeowmeow to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Deep fundamental reasons behind all conflicts with Tezos Foundation

Let's first take a look at two core ideas behind Tezos protocol:
  1. In Bitcoin protocol, there are those who create blocks (miners) and users. Those are two fundamentally different groups. As a result of that they do have fundamentally different interests. When those interests are aligned, it's all work very well. However, sometimes those interests might get misaligned. Miners might want one set of changes in the protocol while users might want another set of changes. Tezos procotol solves this problem via proof of stake's baking mechanism by allowing users of XTZ to become block creators (like miners in Bitcoin protocol). Users/holders of XTZ and block creators are now fundamentally the same group and therefore there is no interest misalignment. Moreover, as a consequence of choosing proof of stake over proof of work, almost anyone can become a baker at low cost. Of course, there is a minimum requirement but it can be easily reduced through voting if price XTZ goes too high;
  2. Although per (1) problem of misalignment between users and miners solved, Tezos protocol make one step further. Namely, there is self-amending mechanisms in protocol. Through of the set of voting rounds, attached bounties (via dillution), there is a deterministic path to resolve disputes in upgrading Tezos protocol. Nobody knows the future, nobody knows how protocol should look like after 5-10-20 years. That's why it's very important to have self-amending procedure. Without deterministic path to protocol upgrade, you will have fork-wars like in Bitcoin. As a result of these fork-wars, you now have Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV. Also, with built-in bounties via dillution, Tezos protocol guarantees funding for its further development;
There is third core idea behind Tezos protocol. Namely, formal verification friendly, low-level and explicit smart contract language - Michelson. While it's very important feature, it's not relevant for this discussion.
Now imagine you are going back in time when Tezos protocol isn't implemented yet, only draft whitepaper. How would you bring it to life if you were original author?
If there were no crypto-currencies, then all you have to do is to take time and implement minimum viable product (MVP) on your own. May be you might do it with co-founder but it's not really necessary for releasing the first version of protocol in absence of any competition.
However, the field was already crowded and time works against you. It would be necessary for project's survival to be as fast as possible in such dynamic field. You need to raise funds to hire dozen of strong programmers to implement Tezos protocol and on top of that to fund development of ecosystem in Tezos network. Namely, wallets, higher-level languages on top of low-level Michelson, education materials for future smart contract writers, new projects similar to 0x, Maker, Compound, Cryptokitties etc.
Now, I would like you to make a pause and think what is Tezos protocol. It tries to align incentives of parties using game-theoretic constructs! And now, I would like you to make second pause and think what crypto-currencies are all about in broader sense. Crypto-currencies are about eliminating centralization and unnecessary middle-mans. One of the biggest middle-mans is governments and their legal system.
People who are in the space for long time should know how much crypto-currencies influenced by Austrian School of Economics (read Hayek's book "Denationalization Of Money" (1976) and early Satoshi Nakamoto's posts).
With that in mind (spirit behind Tezos and crypto-currencies in general), how would you fund development of Tezos protocol and later its initial ecosystem?
The correct answer is to setup decentralized autonomus organization (DAO). Initial DAO on Ethereum protocol since you don't have any Tezos protocol implementations (remember, we are still back in time!).
This DAO will be used to develop Tezos protocol itself and leverage power of smart contracts to correctly align incentives for development of Tezos protocol. Namely, backers of this DAO would get ERC20 token representing voting and governance power. For example, let's say founders raised 250M USD worth in ETH and all of these money will be locked in smart contract. Only backers can unlock funds from smart contract by tranches as Tezos protocol developers making progress. It would be similar to traditional world - seed round, round A, round B etc. When Tezos mainnet goes live, backers would receive proportional amount of XTZ as their ERC20 voting tokens on Ethereum. Since that initial DAO would still have tons of ETH locked by the time Tezos mainnet released, those proceeds will be used to fund wallet developers, high-language developers, and so on (via voting by backers of course).
In this scenario, I would envision that the first big project after Tezos mainnet launched would be to build trustless, decentralized bridge between Tezos blockchain and Ethereum blockchain. Simply, because it would be good to migrate intial DAO and its ETH funds into Tezos blockchain.
There are only two downsides with this approach:
  1. You can't raise funds in Bitcoin but who cares if it's 100M or even 50M (still huge amount of money);
  2. Many people in crypto-space will make fun of you because you just setup DAO on Ethereum while developing Ethereum competitor;
Neither of these two downsides is important. Ultimate upside is that backers has direct control over how funds are spent because they would be the only ones who can unlock funds by voting for proposals.
On meta-level, you would have beautiful symmetry. Namely, you develop Tezos protocol and its ecosystem, using the similar ideas and spirit as Tezos protocol itself!
But we all know that it was never happened!
We all know drama with Gevers who tried to capture power at Tezos Foundation. We all know that there is no RPC command in Tezos github to vote out Tezos Foundation members ;) We all know that we are not in control of Tezos Foundation. Tezos Foundation is a swiss non-profit organization with its own board and we are not part of it. Tezos Foundation is govern under Swiss law and most of you are not even Swiss citizens.
Here is the question why Breitmans suddently decided to throw away all fundamental principles behind crypto-currencies and just went all-in with traditional world? Why we all got stuck with our own mini-Washington, namely Tezos Foundation? There is one reason why Breitmans decided to throw away all their principles and stick with this strange scheme involving Swiss foundations.
The reason is ... socialism. You might think I'm joking but stay with me. There were roaring 1920s and following 1929 stock market crash (by the way that was actually caused by government creating credit bubble). Republican (but still a socialist) Herbert Hoover created depression from 1929 crash. Franklin Roosevelt made this depression truly great! He imposed price-controls and outright gold confiscation (check "Executive Order 6102"). One of his most terrible pieces of paternalistic socialist legislation was "Securities Act of 1933". And this is the reason why Breitmans tried so hard escape iron hand of Roosevelt's zombie.
The same month as Tezos fundraiser, SEC issued statement about the most famous Ethereum DAO:
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2017-131
https://www.sec.gov/litigation/investreport/34-81207.pdf
Basically, they tried to say that DAO violated their 1933 Securities Act (aka Roosevelt zombie). I'm not claiming that Breitmans anticipated this exact SEC statement about Ethereum DAO. All I'm saying that they are smart enough to understand that SEC might come after them as well. It doesn't matter if SEC had right to do so. It doesn't matter that XTZ is not security at all. Only people outside of hardcore old school crypto-community would believe in such non-sense as rights. The truth is that any government is essentially an army which controls a territory and they (not you!) decide what they think is right or wrong.
Breitmans knew that SEC might chase them with bloody machete, so they decided to play traditional game which many played when Switzerland still had numbered accounts. Namely, using Switzerland as old-style traditional escape from Roosevelt zombies.
Unfortunately, for them they got in hands of people who knew too well how actually Swiss foundations work. We all remember how Gevers tried to exploit Swiss law about foundations to seize control over foundation's assets. Now we have new drama. But fundamentally, it's all because Breitmans choose Swiss law over Ethereum smart-contracts.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not blaming Breitmans. I really think that their fear of Roosevelt zombie with bloody machete led them to setup weird foundation in Switzerland. In normal circumstances, I don't see any rational reason not to setup DAO as I described above.
Zooming out, on the bigger scale, you might see that these two worlds (i.e. traditional government law and crypto) are not compatible at all. You just can't have both of two worlds.
For the same reason, I don't believe in STOs. It's a nice toy, a temporary thing to bootstrap your Defi ecosystem in Tezos but nothing more than that.
Every STO, at some point, rely on some centralized entity which is controlled by law of some jurisdiction. Once government (aka army which control territories and make visibility of its own legitimacy via elections and passing laws) decides that your STO is not compliant, all these STO tokens will be worthless overnight. More on this in my another long post:
https://www.reddit.com/MakerDAO/comments/de0sys/kyc_is_absolutely_not_acceptable_for_makerdao/
Regardless of what's happen with Tezos Foundation, I strongly believe that Tezos protocol will thrive. Mainnet went life and the jinn that can't be put back in the bottle!
Update: Many here criticized my position regarding STOs. That's partly my fault with being too lax with terminology (once I wrote big post, I didn't have much energy to clarify on STOs in the end). By STO, I mean any tokens backed by regulated assets (again, I know it's lax definition). I assumed almost everyone here is for open, borderless finance. As a result of that, I assumed that you want to make these tokens available for everyone and that's why one day government will put pressure on such STO issuers to freeze tokens. However, it's turned out that some people excited for STOs being fully regulated from the start and therefore these tokens wouldn't be available for everyone. Basically, some people see main benefits of STOs as being pro-actively censorship friendly. In other words, they want to move all compliance on blockchain. Whereas, I see very existence of government regulations as root of all problems. Having said that, I'm not against STOs but I'm not very excited about them either. You have to make great mental leap to understand that fully-regulated STOs fundamentally solving wrong problem. You have to build fully censorship resistant technology, not fully censorship friendly. No matter how big market for STOs, it's still several orders of magnitude smaller than potential world of fully-inclusive finance without any borders whatsoever. Tezos is very well equipped for this ambitious task especially with new privacy features coming. Remember, Satoshi Nakamoto didn't ask permission from governments before releasing Bitcoin.
submitted by omgcoin to tezos [link] [comments]

Why i’m bullish on Zilliqa (long read)

Hey all, I've been researching coins since 2017 and have gone through 100s of them in the last 3 years. I got introduced to blockchain via Bitcoin of course, analysed Ethereum thereafter and from that moment I have a keen interest in smart contact platforms. I’m passionate about Ethereum but I find Zilliqa to have a better risk reward ratio. Especially because Zilliqa has found an elegant balance between being secure, decentralised and scalable in my opinion.
 
Below I post my analysis why from all the coins I went through I’m most bullish on Zilliqa (yes I went through Tezos, EOS, NEO, VeChain, Harmony, Algorand, Cardano etc.). Note that this is not investment advice and although it's a thorough analysis there is obviously some bias involved. Looking forward to what you all think!
 
Fun fact: the name Zilliqa is a play on ‘silica’ silicon dioxide which means “Silicon for the high-throughput consensus computer.”
 
This post is divided into (i) Technology, (ii) Business & Partnerships, and (iii) Marketing & Community. I’ve tried to make the technology part readable for a broad audience. If you’ve ever tried understanding the inner workings of Bitcoin and Ethereum you should be able to grasp most parts. Otherwise just skim through and once you are zoning out head to the next part.
 
Technology and some more:
 
Introduction The technology is one of the main reasons why I’m so bullish on Zilliqa. First thing you see on their website is: “Zilliqa is a high-performance, high-security blockchain platform for enterprises and next-generation applications.” These are some bold statements.
 
Before we deep dive into the technology let’s take a step back in time first as they have quite the history. The initial research paper from which Zilliqa originated dates back to August 2016: Elastico: A Secure Sharding Protocol For Open Blockchains where Loi Luu (Kyber Network) is one of the co-authors. Other ideas that led to the development of what Zilliqa has become today are: Bitcoin-NG, collective signing CoSi, ByzCoin and Omniledger.
 
The technical white paper was made public in August 2017 and since then they have achieved everything stated in the white paper and also created their own open source intermediate level smart contract language called Scilla (functional programming language similar to OCaml) too.
 
Mainnet is live since end of January 2019 with daily transaction rate growing continuously. About a week ago mainnet reached 5 million transactions, 500.000+ addresses in total along with 2400 nodes keeping the network decentralised and secure. Circulating supply is nearing 11 billion and currently only mining rewards are left. Maximum supply is 21 billion with annual inflation being 7.13% currently and will only decrease with time.
 
Zilliqa realised early on that the usage of public cryptocurrencies and smart contracts were increasing but decentralised, secure and scalable alternatives were lacking in the crypto space. They proposed to apply sharding onto a public smart contract blockchain where the transaction rate increases almost linear with the increase in amount of nodes. More nodes = higher transaction throughput and increased decentralisation. Sharding comes in many forms and Zilliqa uses network-, transaction- and computational sharding. Network sharding opens up the possibility of using transaction- and computational sharding on top. Zilliqa does not use state sharding for now. We’ll come back to this later.
 
Before we continue disecting how Zilliqa achieves such from a technological standpoint it’s good to keep in mind that a blockchain being decentralised and secure and scalable is still one of the main hurdles in allowing widespread usage of decentralised networks. In my opinion this needs to be solved first before blockchains can get to the point where they can create and add large scale value. So I invite you to read the next section to grasp the underlying fundamentals. Because after all these premises need to be true otherwise there isn’t a fundamental case to be bullish on Zilliqa, right?
 
Down the rabbit hole
 
How have they achieved this? Let’s define the basics first: key players on Zilliqa are the users and the miners. A user is anybody who uses the blockchain to transfer funds or run smart contracts. Miners are the (shard) nodes in the network who run the consensus protocol and get rewarded for their service in Zillings (ZIL). The mining network is divided into several smaller networks called shards, which is also referred to as ‘network sharding’. Miners subsequently are randomly assigned to a shard by another set of miners called DS (Directory Service) nodes. The regular shards process transactions and the outputs of these shards are eventually combined by the DS shard as they reach consensus on the final state. More on how these DS shards reach consensus (via pBFT) will be explained later on.
 
The Zilliqa network produces two types of blocks: DS blocks and Tx blocks. One DS Block consists of 100 Tx Blocks. And as previously mentioned there are two types of nodes concerned with reaching consensus: shard nodes and DS nodes. Becoming a shard node or DS node is being defined by the result of a PoW cycle (Ethash) at the beginning of the DS Block. All candidate mining nodes compete with each other and run the PoW (Proof-of-Work) cycle for 60 seconds and the submissions achieving the highest difficulty will be allowed on the network. And to put it in perspective: the average difficulty for one DS node is ~ 2 Th/s equaling 2.000.000 Mh/s or 55 thousand+ GeForce GTX 1070 / 8 GB GPUs at 35.4 Mh/s. Each DS Block 10 new DS nodes are allowed. And a shard node needs to provide around 8.53 GH/s currently (around 240 GTX 1070s). Dual mining ETH/ETC and ZIL is possible and can be done via mining software such as Phoenix and Claymore. There are pools and if you have large amounts of hashing power (Ethash) available you could mine solo.
 
The PoW cycle of 60 seconds is a peak performance and acts as an entry ticket to the network. The entry ticket is called a sybil resistance mechanism and makes it incredibly hard for adversaries to spawn lots of identities and manipulate the network with these identities. And after every 100 Tx Blocks which corresponds to roughly 1,5 hour this PoW process repeats. In between these 1,5 hour no PoW needs to be done meaning Zilliqa’s energy consumption to keep the network secure is low. For more detailed information on how mining works click here.
Okay, hats off to you. You have made it this far. Before we go any deeper down the rabbit hole we first must understand why Zilliqa goes through all of the above technicalities and understand a bit more what a blockchain on a more fundamental level is. Because the core of Zilliqa’s consensus protocol relies on the usage of pBFT (practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance) we need to know more about state machines and their function. Navigate to Viewblock, a Zilliqa block explorer, and just come back to this article. We will use this site to navigate through a few concepts.
 
We have established that Zilliqa is a public and distributed blockchain. Meaning that everyone with an internet connection can send ZILs, trigger smart contracts etc. and there is no central authority who fully controls the network. Zilliqa and other public and distributed blockchains (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) can also be defined as state machines.
 
Taking the liberty of paraphrasing examples and definitions given by Samuel Brooks’ medium article, he describes the definition of a blockchain (like Zilliqa) as:
“A peer-to-peer, append-only datastore that uses consensus to synchronise cryptographically-secure data”.
 
Next he states that: >“blockchains are fundamentally systems for managing valid state transitions”.* For some more context, I recommend reading the whole medium article to get a better grasp of the definitions and understanding of state machines. Nevertheless, let’s try to simplify and compile it into a single paragraph. Take traffic lights as an example: all its states (red, amber and green) are predefined, all possible outcomes are known and it doesn’t matter if you encounter the traffic light today or tomorrow. It will still behave the same. Managing the states of a traffic light can be done by triggering a sensor on the road or pushing a button resulting in one traffic lights’ state going from green to red (via amber) and another light from red to green.
 
With public blockchains like Zilliqa this isn’t so straightforward and simple. It started with block #1 almost 1,5 years ago and every 45 seconds or so a new block linked to the previous block is being added. Resulting in a chain of blocks with transactions in it that everyone can verify from block #1 to the current #647.000+ block. The state is ever changing and the states it can find itself in are infinite. And while the traffic light might work together in tandem with various other traffic lights, it’s rather insignificant comparing it to a public blockchain. Because Zilliqa consists of 2400 nodes who need to work together to achieve consensus on what the latest valid state is while some of these nodes may have latency or broadcast issues, drop offline or are deliberately trying to attack the network etc.
 
Now go back to the Viewblock page take a look at the amount of transaction, addresses, block and DS height and then hit refresh. Obviously as expected you see new incremented values on one or all parameters. And how did the Zilliqa blockchain manage to transition from a previous valid state to the latest valid state? By using pBFT to reach consensus on the latest valid state.
 
After having obtained the entry ticket, miners execute pBFT to reach consensus on the ever changing state of the blockchain. pBFT requires a series of network communication between nodes, and as such there is no GPU involved (but CPU). Resulting in the total energy consumed to keep the blockchain secure, decentralised and scalable being low.
 
pBFT stands for practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance and is an optimisation on the Byzantine Fault Tolerant algorithm. To quote Blockonomi: “In the context of distributed systems, Byzantine Fault Tolerance is the ability of a distributed computer network to function as desired and correctly reach a sufficient consensus despite malicious components (nodes) of the system failing or propagating incorrect information to other peers.” Zilliqa is such a distributed computer network and depends on the honesty of the nodes (shard and DS) to reach consensus and to continuously update the state with the latest block. If pBFT is a new term for you I can highly recommend the Blockonomi article.
 
The idea of pBFT was introduced in 1999 - one of the authors even won a Turing award for it - and it is well researched and applied in various blockchains and distributed systems nowadays. If you want more advanced information than the Blockonomi link provides click here. And if you’re in between Blockonomi and University of Singapore read the Zilliqa Design Story Part 2 dating from October 2017.
Quoting from the Zilliqa tech whitepaper: “pBFT relies upon a correct leader (which is randomly selected) to begin each phase and proceed when the sufficient majority exists. In case the leader is byzantine it can stall the entire consensus protocol. To address this challenge, pBFT offers a view change protocol to replace the byzantine leader with another one.”
 
pBFT can tolerate ⅓ of the nodes being dishonest (offline counts as Byzantine = dishonest) and the consensus protocol will function without stalling or hiccups. Once there are more than ⅓ of dishonest nodes but no more than ⅔ the network will be stalled and a view change will be triggered to elect a new DS leader. Only when more than ⅔ of the nodes are dishonest (>66%) double spend attacks become possible.
 
If the network stalls no transactions can be processed and one has to wait until a new honest leader has been elected. When the mainnet was just launched and in its early phases, view changes happened regularly. As of today the last stalling of the network - and view change being triggered - was at the end of October 2019.
 
Another benefit of using pBFT for consensus besides low energy is the immediate finality it provides. Once your transaction is included in a block and the block is added to the chain it’s done. Lastly, take a look at this article where three types of finality are being defined: probabilistic, absolute and economic finality. Zilliqa falls under the absolute finality (just like Tendermint for example). Although lengthy already we skipped through some of the inner workings from Zilliqa’s consensus: read the Zilliqa Design Story Part 3 and you will be close to having a complete picture on it. Enough about PoW, sybil resistance mechanism, pBFT etc. Another thing we haven’t looked at yet is the amount of decentralisation.
 
Decentralisation
 
Currently there are four shards, each one of them consisting of 600 nodes. 1 shard with 600 so called DS nodes (Directory Service - they need to achieve a higher difficulty than shard nodes) and 1800 shard nodes of which 250 are shard guards (centralised nodes controlled by the team). The amount of shard guards has been steadily declining from 1200 in January 2019 to 250 as of May 2020. On the Viewblock statistics you can see that many of the nodes are being located in the US but those are only the (CPU parts of the) shard nodes who perform pBFT. There is no data from where the PoW sources are coming. And when the Zilliqa blockchain starts reaching their transaction capacity limit, a network upgrade needs to be executed to lift the current cap of maximum 2400 nodes to allow more nodes and formation of more shards which will allow to network to keep on scaling according to demand.
Besides shard nodes there are also seed nodes. The main role of seed nodes is to serve as direct access points (for end users and clients) to the core Zilliqa network that validates transactions. Seed nodes consolidate transaction requests and forward these to the lookup nodes (another type of nodes) for distribution to the shards in the network. Seed nodes also maintain the entire transaction history and the global state of the blockchain which is needed to provide services such as block explorers. Seed nodes in the Zilliqa network are comparable to Infura on Ethereum.
 
The seed nodes were first only operated by Zilliqa themselves, exchanges and Viewblock. Operators of seed nodes like exchanges had no incentive to open them for the greater public.They were centralised at first. Decentralisation at the seed nodes level has been steadily rolled out since March 2020 ( Zilliqa Improvement Proposal 3 ). Currently the amount of seed nodes is being increased, they are public facing and at the same time PoS is applied to incentivize seed node operators and make it possible for ZIL holders to stake and earn passive yields. Important distinction: seed nodes are not involved with consensus! That is still PoW as entry ticket and pBFT for the actual consensus.
 
5% of the block rewards are being assigned to seed nodes (from the beginning in 2019) and those are being used to pay out ZIL stakers.The 5% block rewards with an annual yield of 10.03% translates to roughly 610 MM ZILs in total that can be staked. Exchanges use the custodial variant of staking and wallets like Moonlet will use the non custodial version (starting in Q3 2020). Staking is being done by sending ZILs to a smart contract created by Zilliqa and audited by Quantstamp.
 
With a high amount of DS & shard nodes and seed nodes becoming more decentralised too, Zilliqa qualifies for the label of decentralised in my opinion.
 
Smart contracts
 
Let me start by saying I’m not a developer and my programming skills are quite limited. So I‘m taking the ELI5 route (maybe 12) but if you are familiar with Javascript, Solidity or specifically OCaml please head straight to Scilla - read the docs to get a good initial grasp of how Zilliqa’s smart contract language Scilla works and if you ask yourself “why another programming language?” check this article. And if you want to play around with some sample contracts in an IDE click here. Faucet can be found here. And more information on architecture, dapp development and API can be found on the Developer Portal.
If you are more into listening and watching: check this recent webinar explaining Zilliqa and Scilla. Link is time stamped so you’ll start right away with a platform introduction, R&D roadmap 2020 and afterwards a proper Scilla introduction.
 
Generalised: programming languages can be divided into being ‘object oriented’ or ‘functional’. Here is an ELI5 given by software development academy: > “all programmes have two basic components, data – what the programme knows – and behaviour – what the programme can do with that data. So object-oriented programming states that combining data and related behaviours in one place, is called “object”, which makes it easier to understand how a particular program works. On the other hand, functional programming argues that data and behaviour are different things and should be separated to ensure their clarity.”
 
Scilla is on the functional side and shares similarities with OCaml: > OCaml is a general purpose programming language with an emphasis on expressiveness and safety. It has an advanced type system that helps catch your mistakes without getting in your way. It's used in environments where a single mistake can cost millions and speed matters, is supported by an active community, and has a rich set of libraries and development tools. For all its power, OCaml is also pretty simple, which is one reason it's often used as a teaching language.
 
Scilla is blockchain agnostic, can be implemented onto other blockchains as well, is recognised by academics and won a so called Distinguished Artifact Award award at the end of last year.
 
One of the reasons why the Zilliqa team decided to create their own programming language focused on preventing smart contract vulnerabilities safety is that adding logic on a blockchain, programming, means that you cannot afford to make mistakes. Otherwise it could cost you. It’s all great and fun blockchains being immutable but updating your code because you found a bug isn’t the same as with a regular web application for example. And with smart contracts it inherently involves cryptocurrencies in some form thus value.
 
Another difference with programming languages on a blockchain is gas. Every transaction you do on a smart contract platform like Zilliqa for Ethereum costs gas. With gas you basically pay for computational costs. Sending a ZIL from address A to address B costs 0.001 ZIL currently. Smart contracts are more complex, often involve various functions and require more gas (if gas is a new concept click here ).
 
So with Scilla, similar to Solidity, you need to make sure that “every function in your smart contract will run as expected without hitting gas limits. An improper resource analysis may lead to situations where funds may get stuck simply because a part of the smart contract code cannot be executed due to gas limits. Such constraints are not present in traditional software systems”. Scilla design story part 1
 
Some examples of smart contract issues you’d want to avoid are: leaking funds, ‘unexpected changes to critical state variables’ (example: someone other than you setting his or her address as the owner of the smart contract after creation) or simply killing a contract.
 
Scilla also allows for formal verification. Wikipedia to the rescue:
In the context of hardware and software systems, formal verification is the act of proving or disproving the correctness of intended algorithms underlying a system with respect to a certain formal specification or property, using formal methods of mathematics.
 
Formal verification can be helpful in proving the correctness of systems such as: cryptographic protocols, combinational circuits, digital circuits with internal memory, and software expressed as source code.
 
Scilla is being developed hand-in-hand with formalization of its semantics and its embedding into the Coq proof assistant — a state-of-the art tool for mechanized proofs about properties of programs.”
 
Simply put, with Scilla and accompanying tooling developers can be mathematically sure and proof that the smart contract they’ve written does what he or she intends it to do.
 
Smart contract on a sharded environment and state sharding
 
There is one more topic I’d like to touch on: smart contract execution in a sharded environment (and what is the effect of state sharding). This is a complex topic. I’m not able to explain it any easier than what is posted here. But I will try to compress the post into something easy to digest.
 
Earlier on we have established that Zilliqa can process transactions in parallel due to network sharding. This is where the linear scalability comes from. We can define simple transactions: a transaction from address A to B (Category 1), a transaction where a user interacts with one smart contract (Category 2) and the most complex ones where triggering a transaction results in multiple smart contracts being involved (Category 3). The shards are able to process transactions on their own without interference of the other shards. With Category 1 transactions that is doable, with Category 2 transactions sometimes if that address is in the same shard as the smart contract but with Category 3 you definitely need communication between the shards. Solving that requires to make a set of communication rules the protocol needs to follow in order to process all transactions in a generalised fashion.
 
And this is where the downsides of state sharding comes in currently. All shards in Zilliqa have access to the complete state. Yes the state size (0.1 GB at the moment) grows and all of the nodes need to store it but it also means that they don’t need to shop around for information available on other shards. Requiring more communication and adding more complexity. Computer science knowledge and/or developer knowledge required links if you want to dig further: Scilla - language grammar Scilla - Foundations for Verifiable Decentralised Computations on a Blockchain Gas Accounting NUS x Zilliqa: Smart contract language workshop
 
Easier to follow links on programming Scilla https://learnscilla.com/home Ivan on Tech
 
Roadmap / Zilliqa 2.0
 
There is no strict defined roadmap but here are topics being worked on. And via the Zilliqa website there is also more information on the projects they are working on.
 
Business & Partnerships  
It’s not only technology in which Zilliqa seems to be excelling as their ecosystem has been expanding and starting to grow rapidly. The project is on a mission to provide OpenFinance (OpFi) to the world and Singapore is the right place to be due to its progressive regulations and futuristic thinking. Singapore has taken a proactive approach towards cryptocurrencies by introducing the Payment Services Act 2019 (PS Act). Among other things, the PS Act will regulate intermediaries dealing with certain cryptocurrencies, with a particular focus on consumer protection and anti-money laundering. It will also provide a stable regulatory licensing and operating framework for cryptocurrency entities, effectively covering all crypto businesses and exchanges based in Singapore. According to PWC 82% of the surveyed executives in Singapore reported blockchain initiatives underway and 13% of them have already brought the initiatives live to the market. There is also an increasing list of organisations that are starting to provide digital payment services. Moreover, Singaporean blockchain developers Building Cities Beyond has recently created an innovation $15 million grant to encourage development on its ecosystem. This all suggest that Singapore tries to position itself as (one of) the leading blockchain hubs in the world.
 
Zilliqa seems to already taking advantage of this and recently helped launch Hg Exchange on their platform, together with financial institutions PhillipCapital, PrimePartners and Fundnel. Hg Exchange, which is now approved by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), uses smart contracts to represent digital assets. Through Hg Exchange financial institutions worldwide can use Zilliqa's safe-by-design smart contracts to enable the trading of private equities. For example, think of companies such as Grab, AirBnB, SpaceX that are not available for public trading right now. Hg Exchange will allow investors to buy shares of private companies & unicorns and capture their value before an IPO. Anquan, the main company behind Zilliqa, has also recently announced that they became a partner and shareholder in TEN31 Bank, which is a fully regulated bank allowing for tokenization of assets and is aiming to bridge the gap between conventional banking and the blockchain world. If STOs, the tokenization of assets, and equity trading will continue to increase, then Zilliqa’s public blockchain would be the ideal candidate due to its strategic positioning, partnerships, regulatory compliance and the technology that is being built on top of it.
 
What is also very encouraging is their focus on banking the un(der)banked. They are launching a stablecoin basket starting with XSGD. As many of you know, stablecoins are currently mostly used for trading. However, Zilliqa is actively trying to broaden the use case of stablecoins. I recommend everybody to read this text that Amrit Kumar wrote (one of the co-founders). These stablecoins will be integrated in the traditional markets and bridge the gap between the crypto world and the traditional world. This could potentially revolutionize and legitimise the crypto space if retailers and companies will for example start to use stablecoins for payments or remittances, instead of it solely being used for trading.
 
Zilliqa also released their DeFi strategic roadmap (dating November 2019) which seems to be aligning well with their OpFi strategy. A non-custodial DEX is coming to Zilliqa made by Switcheo which allows cross-chain trading (atomic swaps) between ETH, EOS and ZIL based tokens. They also signed a Memorandum of Understanding for a (soon to be announced) USD stablecoin. And as Zilliqa is all about regulations and being compliant, I’m speculating on it to be a regulated USD stablecoin. Furthermore, XSGD is already created and visible on block explorer and XIDR (Indonesian Stablecoin) is also coming soon via StraitsX. Here also an overview of the Tech Stack for Financial Applications from September 2019. Further quoting Amrit Kumar on this:
 
There are two basic building blocks in DeFi/OpFi though: 1) stablecoins as you need a non-volatile currency to get access to this market and 2) a dex to be able to trade all these financial assets. The rest are build on top of these blocks.
 
So far, together with our partners and community, we have worked on developing these building blocks with XSGD as a stablecoin. We are working on bringing a USD-backed stablecoin as well. We will soon have a decentralised exchange developed by Switcheo. And with HGX going live, we are also venturing into the tokenization space. More to come in the future.”*
 
Additionally, they also have this ZILHive initiative that injects capital into projects. There have been already 6 waves of various teams working on infrastructure, innovation and research, and they are not from ASEAN or Singapore only but global: see Grantees breakdown by country. Over 60 project teams from over 20 countries have contributed to Zilliqa's ecosystem. This includes individuals and teams developing wallets, explorers, developer toolkits, smart contract testing frameworks, dapps, etc. As some of you may know, Unstoppable Domains (UD) blew up when they launched on Zilliqa. UD aims to replace cryptocurrency addresses with a human readable name and allows for uncensorable websites. Zilliqa will probably be the only one able to handle all these transactions onchain due to ability to scale and its resulting low fees which is why the UD team launched this on Zilliqa in the first place. Furthermore, Zilliqa also has a strong emphasis on security, compliance, and privacy, which is why they partnered with companies like Elliptic, ChainSecurity (part of PwC Switzerland), and Incognito. Their sister company Aqilliz (Zilliqa spelled backwards) focuses on revolutionizing the digital advertising space and is doing interesting things like using Zilliqa to track outdoor digital ads with companies like Foodpanda.
 
Zilliqa is listed on nearly all major exchanges, having several different fiat-gateways and recently have been added to Binance’s margin trading and futures trading with really good volume. They also have a very impressive team with good credentials and experience. They dont just have “tech people”. They have a mix of tech people, business people, marketeers, scientists, and more. Naturally, it's good to have a mix of people with different skill sets if you work in the crypto space.
 
Marketing & Community
 
Zilliqa has a very strong community. If you just follow their Twitter their engagement is much higher for a coin that has approximately 80k followers. They also have been ‘coin of the day’ by LunarCrush many times. LunarCrush tracks real-time cryptocurrency value and social data. According to their data it seems Zilliqa has a more fundamental and deeper understanding of marketing and community engagement than almost all other coins. While almost all coins have been a bit frozen in the last months, Zilliqa seems to be on its own bull run. It was somewhere in the 100s a few months ago and is currently ranked #46 on CoinGecko. Their official Telegram also has over 20k people and is very active, and their community channel which is over 7k now is more active and larger than many other official channels. Their local communities) also seem to be growing.
 
Moreover, their community started ‘Zillacracy’ together with the Zilliqa core team ( see www.zillacracy.com ). It’s a community run initiative where people from all over the world are now helping with marketing and development on Zilliqa. Since its launch in February 2020 they have been doing a lot and will also run their own non custodial seed node for staking. This seed node will also allow them to start generating revenue for them to become a self sustaining entity that could potentially scale up to become a decentralized company working in parallel with the Zilliqa core team. Comparing it to all the other smart contract platforms (e.g. Cardano, EOS, Tezos etc.) they don't seem to have started a similar initiatives (correct me if I’m wrong though). This suggest in my opinion that these other smart contract platforms do not fully understand how to utilize the ‘power of the community’. This is something you cannot ‘buy with money’ and gives many projects in the space a disadvantage.
 
Zilliqa also released two social products called SocialPay and Zeeves. SocialPay allows users to earn ZILs while tweeting with a specific hashtag. They have recently used it in partnership with the Singapore Red Cross for a marketing campaign after their initial pilot program. It seems like a very valuable social product with a good use case. I can see a lot of traditional companies entering the space through this product, which they seem to suggest will happen. Tokenizing hashtags with smart contracts to get network effect is a very smart and innovative idea.
 
Regarding Zeeves, this is a tipping bot for Telegram. They already have 1000s of signups and they plan to keep upgrading it for more and more people to use it (e.g. they recently have added a quiz features). They also use it during AMAs to reward people in real time. It’s a very smart approach to grow their communities and get familiar with ZIL. I can see this becoming very big on Telegram. This tool suggests, again, that the Zilliqa team has a deeper understanding what the crypto space and community needs and is good at finding the right innovative tools to grow and scale.
 
To be honest, I haven’t covered everything (i’m also reaching the character limited haha). So many updates happening lately that it's hard to keep up, such as the International Monetary Fund mentioning Zilliqa in their report, custodial and non-custodial Staking, Binance Margin, Futures & Widget, entering the Indian market, and more. The Head of Marketing Colin Miles has also released this as an overview of what is coming next. And last but not least, Vitalik Buterin has been mentioning Zilliqa lately acknowledging Zilliqa and mentioning that both projects have a lot of room to grow. There is much more info of course and a good part of it has been served to you on a silver platter. I invite you to continue researching by yourself :-) And if you have any comments or questions please post here!
submitted by haveyouheardaboutit to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Let's discuss the 'one chain or none approach' and BSV winning narrative - aside from CSW!

It's been a bit quiet on here, and since a lot of things are up in the air about the court case currently, I thought I would start a discussion that is largely unrelated to CSW except for in addressing some of the broadly accepted statements and predictions for the longer term performance of BSV.
I wanted to make this thread because there have been fragmented discussions on this that I have found interesting and engaging, and I would like to put it in one place. I think it also addresses a very key point which I believe both sides will agree on - the 'survival' of BSV regardless of whether CSW is Satoshi.
I feel there are a few key areas around which this revolves so I will attempt to capture them below and hopefully we can address each one and why it could/couldn't leave BSV as the sole survivor without it descending into bickering.
  1. The whole bitcoin whitepaper narrative, and the flaws of other chains, in particular bitcoin core and cash. Aside from interpretations of the whitepaper, a lot of this narrative is based on things that BTC or other chains have done wrong which prevent scaling. My issues with this argument are primarily that some the 'facts' that are used as an argument against BTC are basically not true. Blocks are not actually capped at 1MB, Segwit does not break the chain of digital signatures and non segwit nodes can still verify transactions that have happened using segwit. Obviously segwit didn't fix all the problems it was meant to and the lightning network is awful, but it seems like one of the first arguments presented against BTC in favour of BSV relates to the above, but just because they are repeated incessantly does not make them true. If core presented a valid scaling solution within certain parameters surely this is a huge setback for BSV. For other chains I'll be more general, but I think it comes across as ignorant to say that the system proposed in the whitepaper is the only thing that could ever work. What if something that does not yet exist comes along tomorrow (like it has done before) and is better. Ethereum has it's flaws, but on the back end it is a proof of work chain that has consistently achieved higher daily transactions and an order of magnitude greater functionality than bitcoin since some point in 2017 with the downside that the blockchain is bigger. This obviously does not phase the BSV camp, so why fork from something that was already 'on the back foot' with respect to the metrics that are hailed as important. I do not see BSVs unique proposition in this respect.
  2. The crude approach to scaling metrics. I will concede this is more just a thing that annoys me which I want to address and for the purpose of my posts define, obviously people are free to disagree and discuss. A lot of the social media debates revolve around 'scaling' and for good reason. But I want to explore the definition of that word. To me, doubling a block size to double the number of transactions is not scaling, that is a crude way to increase throughput. Scaling would be fitting twice the number of transactions into the same block, for example. They are not the same thing, and crudely increasing throughput will have diminishing returns effects in relation to performance. The other scaling metric that annoys me is quotes in TPS when we're talking about bitcoin rules which is a new block every 10 minutes. Functionally this is completely misleading and should be looked at with respect to finality. If I had an account with a bitcoin in it, I could spam a bunch of 'valid' 1 bitcoin transactions to nodes, yet after the block is mined obviously only one of those can be valid. Daily transaction metrics are good, or unique address interactions etc, but quoting 'high' TPS just because a big block was mined after 10 minutes does not necessarily make that any more useful. I do not see BSVs unique proposition in this respect.
  3. The legal compliance thing vs anarachist thing that is being pushed and about it being the 'only' legal compliant chain. This is basically nonsense, code is code, obviously it is not law. Code is a neutral ruleset which people choose to participate with and abide by. Nothing is black and white, one could choose to be completely legal things on any other chain and completely illegal things on BSV to the same effect. I don't think there is a BSV vs other chains argument to be made here from either perspective. The law is the law, it doesn't matter which software you use to abide by it or break it with.
  4. The decentralisation debate. I have less to say on this one but I don't think it's a compelling case for any approach as being objectively better or worse. Decentralisation is a spectrum and there is no universal sweet spot. On one end we have the 'everyone run a node' approach and on the other end we have host everything on AWS. BSV is somewhere in the middle of this, no one knows what the 'correct' amount of decentralisation is for general purposes so I do not see how it can be claimed that BSV has an optimal approach as long as it remains functional.
  5. This is my personal point of greatest interest. I wouldn't say I'm a die hard supporter of any chain in particular, so I do think it is a worthwhile experiment trying the big block approach to see what happens. The issue is the assumption that this is the correct and best solution for doing everything on the blockchain. This leads me to the thinking that BSV is getting stuck in a 'jack of all trades - master of none' scenario. Whilst this means it may perform 'fine' functionally at the moment, it feels that all things equal, it may not survive long term and will certainly never be the dominant chain because there will always be a better alternative for a specific purpose, four general examples that I can think of below:
    1. Security of a significant transaction. Lets say a house purchase, if I had to choose a chain I would obviously choose BTC because it has the greatest hashrate by orders of magnitude. I will happily pay a fee and wait for a few confirmations to know that as far as blockchains go, my transaction is as final as possible. Obviously this example uses current state of things, but obviously this use case will always go to the most secure chain, which could be anything. I cannot see a compelling case for this becoming BSV.
    2. Microtransactions. I agree this is very important, and this narrative is pushed a lot in BSV. The problem is, there are plenty of chains currently that allow fast transactions with finality in seconds that are literally fee free. Whilst it is true that BSV can do really cheap transactions, what is the point when there is a faster and cheaper alternative. The same applies to SPV and 0-conf, while they might be 'fine' most of the time, why rely on them when you don't have to. Whilst there are more concerns over security for these fast and free chains, if we're talking beer money or whatever it's less of an issue if you're paying for convenience. This sort of echoes what Craig said in the bitcoin vision video from the other day that I agree with, except for the BSV part, so again I don't think this is a compelling case for only BSV, in fact I already think it is on the back foot.
    3. Privacy. It's a controversial topic for sure, but the fact remains that people will sometimes for whatever reason want to be able to transact privately and for illicit reasons. BSV does not intend to cater for this, but there is a market for this regardless, and a number of chains that offer it to varying degrees.
    4. Smart contracts. Another big one which encompasses a lot of things from tokens to actual contracts to provably fair gaming and gambling. There is already a host of account based chains with far more advanced functionality and greater developer communities than BSV. The 10 minute block finality is also an issue here, as for many of the above you presumably will want finality to transactions. I know BSV is expanding the 'smart contract' capabilities but I do not see a unique or compelling case for it to suddenly dominate or even make an impact any time soon. Once again, I do not see any kind of unique selling point.
So all in all, there is a fierce discussion aside from CSW about whether BSV is superior and can survive and thrive. I am obviously of the belief that the 'one chain or none' approach will not be the case, but I would be curious to here why people on both sides of the fence agree or disagree on the various points, and whether there will be one chain to rule them all..!
submitted by Martin1209 to bitcoinfights [link] [comments]

Powell says more policy help may be needed to pull the US out of economic downturn

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 53%. (I'm a bot)
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that policymakers may have to use additional weapons to pull the country out of an economic mire that has cost at least 20 million jobs and caused "a level of pain that is hard to capture in words."
"While the economic response has been both timely and appropriately large, it may not be the final chapter, given that the path ahead is both highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks," Powell said in prepared remarks for a webcast event with the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Powell said the recovery is largely dependent on a number of questions surrounding the virus, such as how long it will take for treatments to arise, whether the end of social distancing will spur new outbreaks and when consumer and business confidence will return.
"The answers to these questions will go a long way toward setting the timing and pace of the economic recovery," he said.
While he indicated the Fed will continue to bring all of its power to bear on stabilizing the economy and financial markets, Powell indicated that the biggest future response may have to come from Congress.
"Additional fiscal support could be costly, but worth it if it helps avoid long-term economic damage and leaves us with a stronger recovery. This tradeoff is one for our elected representatives, who wield powers of taxation and spending," he said.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: Powell#1 economic#2 recovery#3 While#4 both#5
Post found in /Coronavirus, /Economics, /Bitcoin, /TheNewsFeed and /NBCauto.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
submitted by autotldr to autotldr [link] [comments]

Crypto-Currencies Are Poised To Radically Change Finance … And Reshape Nations

Crypto-Currencies Are Poised To Radically Change Finance … And Reshape Nations
Article by Forbes: Kurt Cagle & COGNITIVE WORLD In the 18th Century, a venture begun in England established an outpost in the New World around Hudson Bay. The Hudson Bay Company was given license by the crown to exploit the bounty of the Northernmost parts of North America, and eventually a trading network was built out, trading fur, woods, and mineral resources. This network manifested itself primarily through a series of forts that protected general stores, extending as far south and west as Oregon, along the Pacific Coast, forts that would in time become cities like Portland, Vancouver, Toronto and so forth.

https://preview.redd.it/wpegk0kit6f31.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7a4300bc49b3ade91c544bdf0dc0677001ec863
An example of Hudson Bay Company Scrip WIKIPEDIA The Hudson Bay Company used its own special scrip within its territory, the scrip holding value because it could be traded for British pounds as well as establishing more or less standard prices for goods. When Canada was founded in 1867, it established its territory by buying the land from the HBC, and making HBC’s scrip fully convertible to the new Canadian Dollar. In effect, a privately held scrip became the de facto currency of a nation. Empires, kings and potentates have long coveted the right to put their face on coins, but until comparatively recently, the value of those coins was determined primarily by the assayed weight of the metal that made them up. Indeed, the Dutch, during the 16th century, actually scored their gold coins so that a person could break it apart into octants, from whence was derived the term “Pieces of eight” so beloved in pirate tales. They also created coins from the silver mine of Joachim’s Valley (‘Joachimsthal’ in Dutch) which were in turn heavily used by first the Spanish territories then eventually English North America, the name frequently shorted first to ‘Thaler’, and then via Spanish as ‘Dollar’.

https://preview.redd.it/rw38upgkt6f31.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb4de09c64fb6fa7a70d2cde9a9e3cae4b8f2962
Pieces-of-Eight, so named because the Spanish dollar coin of the 1600s was frequently broken upon into eight bits or reals, which in time became known as pesos (pieces). JAMESTOWN REDISCOVERY Following the death of Louis the Fourteenth of France, the French economy was in tatters given the financial excesses of the Sun King. The Duke of Orleans, the regent of the new five-year-old King Louis the Fifteen, turned to a friend, Scottish financier John Law, for help. Law, for his part, made a proposal that had been tried on a smaller scale, but never really at a national level: the concept of creating a paper currency, backed by the government and in theory redeemable with silver. While the experiment worked for a little while, speculators made the currency unstable, which was then exacerbated by the government producing more Francs than it could support, causing the currency to crash and significantly diminishing the ability of France to compete in the colonization in North America. It also destabilized the French court by reducing the influence of the King over his aristocrats, many of whom had been severely burned in the crash, and not coincidentally laying the groundwork for the French Revolution several decades later. Despite this, as Europe went from Feudal vassalages to nation-states, the ability to control the minting of paper currency based upon its status as a promissory note became one of the key prerogatives of nations. It was one of the reasons, when the first American Confederation, created in the aftermath of the US Revolutionary War, realized they needed a stronger government, the one thing that the Federal government reserved to itself rather than allow to the states was the exclusive right to mint coinage and currency.

https://preview.redd.it/bloq70ept6f31.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=af104c0e62286fbc3d2102b96c1ec2ba53ef851c
Currencies have long been the prerogative of nations, though that may be changing as electronic coinage hearkens back to most currencies’ merchantile roots. GETTY Fast-forward two hundred and fifty years, and you can see that history is in fact repeating itself. A currency system works by having a few essential characteristics: A note of currency must be unique and non-duplicatable. Currency must be readily redeemable — if not enough people will accept the currency as having a certain value, it cannot be used as a medium of exchange. Currency must be relatively stable — it holds roughly the same value over some time interval. These three conditions place some real constraints on currencies, though not always obvious ones. For instance, if you increase the supply of a given currency, you might think that it would dilute the value of that money. Maybe yes, maybe no. If demand is high for money, increasing the money supply may actually accelerate economic growth, though if demand for money is low, increasing the supply may simply cause inflation. If currency is only redeemable in certain places, then it has less utility as a store of value. If a currency has only half the value today that it had yesterday, then people will get rid of that currency quickly in favor of something that is more stable. It turns out, in fact, that most paper currencies don’t completely satisfy the above constraints over a long time period, and what’s worse, the relationship between money and value can be quite non-linear. This is because currency by itself represents buying power. A gallon of gas in 1971 cost twenty nine cents in most places. Today, that same gallon of gas costs $2.90. Ironically, a loaf of bread cost $.29 and $2.90 respectively as well. The average wage in 1971 was $10,000. Today, its $50,000. This is worth highlighting, though more from an economic rather than technical standpoint. Put in stark terms, the typical worker’s wages went up 400%, but the price of most goods went up 1000% percent over roughly the last fifty years (or, the money you earn is worth 60% less today than it was in 1971, relative to the cost of living). The actual utility of a gallon of gas has actually not changed much in that time, which means that what has changed is both buying power for a given amount of money, and the change in wages relative to the cost of goods. Why? That’s a topic for another time.

https://preview.redd.it/4dgrmrist6f31.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b110124483a8b8d7a986c5f226e6ca9c6ff0115
Electronic currencies, such as BitCoin and Ethereum, rank high in their ability to guarantee uniqueness, but are struggling with exchangeability and are still very heavily influenced by speculators, making them less than ideal for stable currencies. GETTY IMAGES So, where do cryptocurrencies play into all of this? At the moment, of the three points highlighted above, cryptocurrencies arguably are really, really good with the first point, are getting better (though still not great) with the second point, but really suck on the last point. Consider this. One of the biggest arguments in favor of cryptocurrencies is that they are hard to forge. It’s possible — throw enough computation power at it and you could in fact do it, but the salient point is that the cost to do so likely outweighs the value of the coin. Now the downside to that is that many of the current mechanisms for determining uniqueness (such as mining prime numbers) are also very expensive, not just in terms of computational cycles but in terms of energy costs. It’s one of the reasons why a few of the primary coins actually are too large by themselves to be used for currency — you have to divide a coin up to say a 1000 different micro-coins to get to the point where you can buy a cup of coffee and a sweet roll at Starbucks, and this in turn still requires effective uniqueness algorithms. However, even with weaker algorithms for division, such micro-coins are still orders of magnitude harder to forge than your average US $20 bill, which is far and away the most popular currency in the world in terms of forgery. However, this point is actually becoming less and less of an issue for the simple reason that paper currency itself is becoming obsolete, except among the very poor (who often have difficulty in being able to set up bank accounts). For much of the latter twentieth century, credit cards made significant inroads in eliminating paper currency, and most recently, the introduction of chipped cards, both credit and debit, have significantly reduced the incidences of fraud. The bigger issue today is online card fraud, though even there, the introduction of electronic wallets (and the growing liability that retailers are facing with each hacking incident via class action suits) are spurring much better encryption of data, as well as better control by consumers. This is not to say that credit card fraud isn’t still a problem, but it is a problem that shows signs of abating. Another, perhaps far more reaching consequence of the rise of credit cards, debit cards, digital rewards cards, gift cards and EBTs has been that it has been destroying the physicality of currency, and with it, one of the last vestiges of control that most nations have over their currency. The reason for this is simple. Today, it is possible to set up foreign exchange transfer accounts in which a given currency is in Yen, or Euros, or Pounds, and draw upon them as readily as you can a US funds account. You can set up a crypto account in much the same way, and can even, with some creative work, set up accounts that let you play currency arbitrage across multiple such accounts. If Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple or Facebook (or their counterparts in other countries) set up their own digital currency, you could do the same thing. Amazon is actually creating a highly synergistic ecosystem that is nearly a full bore economy in its own right.

https://preview.redd.it/ybuj1fkut6f31.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee3c08e08e0f7621fea5d52bd0eff01c17f86ca0
In ten to twenty years time your paycheck could very well be made in private e-currency rather than a country’s native currency, which will send shockwaves in political circles. GETTY Put yourself ten years in the future. Amazon (as an example) puts out a cryptocurrency called the bezo (one bezo, two bezos, ….). You can continue to set up a US dollar account for Amazon prime, but you can also open up a bezos account, based upon a blockchain like construct under the control of Amazon. Prices begin to creep up when measured in US dollars, because the US economy has for the most part had net positive price inflation even during recessions, but prices in bezos stay fixed. Other companies look at this and offer the option of paying their employees in bezos. Some are resistant, but especially younger employees take the plunge, and after a while, older employees see that their net buying power continues to decline while the ones in the Amazon ecosystem are seeing wage power stability, and you see a shift as older employees begin to do the same thing. Other companies do this on their own, but discover that they don’t have quite enough people in their network to maintain stability, and so they reach out and affiliate themselves with the Amazon network. Banks have taken notice, and all of a sudden you see Amazon currency replacing the US Dollar in more and more transactions, many of them for millions or even billions of dollars. And then Amazon moves the Amazon Currency Network to the Cayman Islands. Overnight, the United States sees 35% of its tax base disappear. Too many people are no longer using US Dollars for transactions. The US Debt, which has been a ticking time bomb for decades, goes off as the US can no longer even pretend to service its deficits, let alone the total debt. States, given the conundrum of having a central Federal government that has become increasingly hostile and demanding (while providing less and less value for the tax money that their citizenry have paid) vs. working with a more stable currency and more autonomy, begin to think the unthinkable at a policy level: choosing to join a different political alliance based upon a common protocol for sharing currencies.

https://preview.redd.it/au1ssbdwt6f31.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf6038a44188e96511ec0abc3d4f3ce4f60812a1
One very distinct possibility of the intermixing between private and public e-currencies is the possibility that it could very well exacerbate an already growing divide along geopolitical lines. GETTY Another scenario can be envisioned. Recently, Walmart announced that they had a patent on a new blockchain currency, with the implications that they would be issuing a currency within the relatively near future. Amazon and Walmart are seen as competitors in the general goods sector, and while there is some overlap they tend to service different regions (and their customers often have very divergent political leanings). Over time you end up with two competing currencies, the Bezo and the Walton. Each of which provides a premium within their respective networks and a double penalty within the opposite network — the double being the fact that in order to convert from Bezos to Waltons, you would have to convert one currency to USDs and then to the other currency, with fees at each transaction point (something often happens in existing currency exchanges, where you have to find a common currency to exchange between two different currencies that don’t otherwise have exchange rates). Over time, the economies diverge, with frustrations mounting as the Bezo and the Walton respond to different economic strategies, and changes in political power in Washington DC bring with it a distinct preference for one currency or the other, with all that this implies for policy. Attempting to peg either of the private currencies to the dollar ends up with a situation similar to that which the European Union experience in 2008, when economic policy that was right for the northern countries with strong industrial bases proved ruinous for the southern countries that were primarily agrarian in nature (and is in fact a part of the current problem between red and blue America). What is likely to happen in this scenario is the rise of compacts — agreements between states that standardize upon specific policies regarding economic action, taxation, representation, immigration, public programs, defense, ecological policy, education and so on. Put another way, the currency networks that emerge (and it is likely they will be networked, not just one single currency) will begin looking and acting more and more like autonomous countries. With this comes the reduction of power in Washington, DC and the federal government as states hew more closely to their compact alliances. Now, to be clear, these are both hypothetical scenarios, and I’m using Amazon and Walmart here just to illustrate the point. Nor are these the only scenarios that may play out. It’s also worth noting that what is at issue is not so much cryptocurrency by itself as it is the ability of currency networks to effectively capture the tax base of parts or all of a country. Will this result in civil war? Hard to say. We may very well end up in a situation where the US becomes a Confederation along the lines of Canada, with a weaker central government, a common defense agreement and stronger regional blocs. The US may split peacefully into several distinct regions based upon the degree of economic connectivity. It’s possible that smarter heads prevail and some agreement is worked out to keep the status quo. However, the likelihood of that decreases the more that mechanisms for separation get implemented, and eCurrencies, whether national based or privately based, have the potential to exacerbate an already stressed situation.

https://preview.redd.it/y9c01xa1u6f31.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=9371cdc22a409b03230590b1b5e13a6e848b78af
One of the major issues that most eCoins have is that they are still highly unstable, due to a comparatively small pool of investors, the potential for volatile speculation, and the potential that a government could make such transactions illegal. GETTY The primary mitigating factor from this happening now is the lack of stability of crypto-currencies, which is something of a chicken and egg problem. Stability ultimately comes from the number of participants involved, which in turn determines the degree to which speculation can take place within a currency. Speculation and stability are counter-weighted — most speculators prefer an asset class to be volatile, because such volatility can make for higher returns with less capital, though it can also lead to higher losses. You can speculate with stable currency (as George Soros managed to do successfully against the British pound in the 1970s) but it requires deep pockets and a great deal of leverage, and being unsuccessful can ruin you. Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies are still very unstable primarily because they lack both the installed base of users and because they are not yet fully convertible or redeemable. It is arguable whether any of the first generation of ICOs will ever meet that bar alone, though that changes once you begin seeing mergers and adoptions between ICOs and large financial or network concerns. This also moots one of the other major selling points that ICO promoters themselves try to make. No currency is going to survive if transactions in that currency remain anonymous, and keeping such transactions anonymous will become increasingly difficult over time. The reason for this is relatively simple — any transaction has real world implications, those implications can be tracked, and once one thread of a transaction begins to get picked apart, then it becomes possible to determine how these connect to other transactions. Government opacity (which is one form of anonymity) will keep many existing ICOs from ever being recognized as legitimate, and may very well be seen as perfect channels for money laundering and black market transactions, putting these ICOs under deep scrutiny. It is likely that currencies based upon (semi-) transparent block-chains (something you’re increasingly seeing developed by financial institutions) will likely overtake the anonymous block-chains currently being deployed.

https://preview.redd.it/79i6dzb4u6f31.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ef3c872dc868e52e9b8454bf8403b0db7562152
The future of finance (and of bank accounts) may very well be that a typical account is, in fact, an index made up of different e-currencies, both public and private. GETTY In the longer term (fifteen to twenty years), it is likely that the average consumer will likely not interact much at all with ICOs directly. Instead, what I see happening is that banks (and bank-like-entities, such as credit unions) will controls portfolios of currencies and accounts will then consist of baskets of different coins on various networks. Consumers can then determine the mix of their coin holdings, and can designate the default currencies they wish to be paid in (or pay out) when they make a financial transaction. However, at the micro-level, these networks and baskets will be treated in much the same way national currencies do today, with the added wrinkle that these private currencies can push and pull on the national currencies at a level unprecedented until now. What happens when the Bezo replaces the Japanese Yen (or the US Dollar) as the primary instrument for carry trades. What if the Iranian eDinar becomes the preferred currency for pricing oil, or an international incident causes investors to buy up Chinese eYuan and sell the USD, raising the potential for price increases in the United States (or vice versa). What will almost certainly happen is that the distinction between international corporations and nations, already somewhat blurry, will erode even more with time. Businesses will increasingly find themselves having to establish comprehensive foreign policies, fielding security forces and dealing with issues that traditionally have been the domain of countries. At the same time, fundamental questions, including the deceptively difficult one of what constitutes citizenship, will become pressing sooner than we’d like to believe. The upshot of this is that Bitcoins and related electronic currencies are likely here to stay, will become progressively more influential in both political and economic policy as they become more stable, and will almost certainly introduce stresses and potential breaking points in economies globally throughout the twenty-first century.
submitted by GTE_IO to u/GTE_IO [link] [comments]

Musing on Money: Gold, USD, and BTC

Gold, USD, and BTC are often presented as if they are competitors, which of course in some ways they are. However, I find far more interesting and enlightening their complementary differences which illustrate the benefits that come from each and why I expect that the future will not be any one of them eliminating the others but instead a continued coexistence with overall benefit to society.
Let's consider gold first. Obviously it has the advantage of history and universality. For thousands of years humans have recognized gold as having certain uncommon properties: a rare, easily malleable, yellow metal. That doesn't seem like much, but it's been enough to make it appreciated for decorative purposes and commonly used as a trade good. Its history and rarity combine to make it an attractive long-term store of value: a person who buys a piece of gold today can be relatively confident that whoever they give it to will be able to trade it for a similar amount of goods and services in future centuries. Of course, such physical gold (as opposed to an ETF, etc) can also be stolen or lost. But if custody is maintained over the gold, it is reasonable to expect that although there will be some fluctuations in its value relative to other trade goods, it will still retain significant purchasing power.
However, there are also significant disadvantages to gold. It is no longer commonly accepted directly in trade, so it needs to be converted to a local currency and this tends to involve somewhat substantial fees, so there significant inefficiency particularly if one is only storing value for a relatively short period of time, like anything less than a decade. It's an obvious target for theft, and if one has it stored by a third party this has expense (as opposed to having one's USD stored in a bank, which is free or for which you get paid).
In the modern economy, the primary role of gold is as a backup store of value in case the daily currency gets inflated. However, due to various peculiarities of the gold market, it is not always effective in this role as smaller inflation may not be captured by an appreciating gold price due to other fluctuations in gold price or exchange fees. Thus gold tends to be more of a defense against extreme inflation than mild inflation. This is a fuzzy line though: looking at a chart of Gold in USD over the last 100 years there is massive volatility, while I expect that overall the purchasing power of the dollar has declined in a rather more straightforward fashion. ...oh, oops, I thought that seemed off: make sure to uncheck "inflation-adjusted". What we want to see is precisely the raw USD values, because we're looking to see how gold functions as a hedge against inflation.
And then the pattern becomes rather more clear: before the USD left the gold standard, even into the beginning of the 1970s, gold was less than $40 per ounce. Now it is above $1,000 per ounce. Now, USD has not faced hyperinflation like the Weimar Republic or Mugabe's Zimbabwe. But it has clearly had heavy price inflation and loss of purchasing power. Although volatile and imperfect, gold has been a useful tool for being able to store value without having its purchasing power constantly eroded by this effect.
Now, the United States dollar. I'm using this as a representative for all government issued currencies, just as I used gold as representative of all precious metals or other commodity stores of value, and for similar reasons: it is familiar and a global standard. Even outside the United States, the USD is often used in trade and is considered a 'global reserve currency'. This piece is not primarily about USD in comparison to other currencies or the reasons for its pre-eminence, but I'll just note that there are some circular reinforcing effects here: because it is seen as a strong, stable currency, this leads to increased global demand for the USD, which helps to make this strength in some ways a self-reinforcing condition (although not one which necessarily will maintain forever of course).
Proponents of gold and BTC frequently criticize the inflationary prices of USD and the erosion of value inherent to it by design and modern financial philosophy (not referring to 'MMT' but mainstream economic thought today supports having deliberate inflation and loss of value because this is claimed to be less bad than the alternative of price deflation). This is absolutely an effect which has significant and obvious downside to anyone who has value in USD. On the other hand, there can be some positive aspects to it as well from some perspectives. This has the effect of reducing the value of the principal amount of debt over time. Of course, this is compensated for by interest rates in return and so tends to be a wash overall, but it can be a helpful effect for those who owe mortgages or take out loans to purchase productive capital.
In general, this inflation is designed to encourage spending or investment and discourage idle cash. While horrible to anyone who simply wants to be able to save over time, and while it tends to exacerbate cycles of boom and bust economy, this does perhaps help overall to incentivize economic activity.
Beyond the question of value over the long-term, USD (et. al.) are obviously the most convenient unit of account for daily commerce. Whether used directly as cash, or far more commonly by bank transfer or card payment, USD is the basis of trade. There is some inertia effect here and some policy effect, but overall the system works rather well: it tends to be convenient and easy to spend USD and thus it's widely accepted. It's a common platform upon which the economy runs.
BTC is obviously still quite new and experimental and generally untrusted, for good reason. It is by no means certain it will survive the next ten years. On the other hand, it has in my view held up rather well for being so new. There hasn't been a major bug which has destroyed the system, and while the price has obviously been extremely volatile, over the course of years it has so far managed to come out of each bubble with a somewhat higher base than it went into it with. For years BTC did not exceed the ~$1,000 2013 peak of Mt. Gox (based on manipulation and fraud), but then in the 2017 / 2018 bubble it finally did. Now, while far below the $20,000 peak of early 2018, BTC is still well above the <$1,000 it was for years.
Nonetheless, this is quite obviously not something to stake the entire proverbial farm upon. Even if cryptocurrency is dominant 100 years from not, it is not obvious that BTC or necessarily any of the current contenders will still even exist much less have maintained their current purchasing power.
This is an interesting trial of a different system, one which combined the "from nothingness" of USD and its digital transfers with the concept of limited quantities like gold as well as its statelessness (although both of these last are somewhat chimeras: obviously there can be unlimited varieties of crypto so the scarcity is artificial and despite the claims of being leaderless crypto does in fact ultimately have decisions made by people and accepted or not by communities).
Clearly there is far greater volatility in BTC than in USD or gold. On the other hand, it has the potential to grow more than either do: gold has saturated the world and while it's unlikely to lose significant value it's hard for it to gain in purchasing power either. Similarly USD in total has little more to gain, and individual dollars of course are essentially guaranteed to lose value. So there is a lottery nature to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency, which is as well part of what has given them an unsavory reputation due to the "get-rich-quick" style of promotion that inherently is incentivized for holders.
I tend to view crypto as essentially a speculative novelty: when there is a ton of money floating around, then people will throw it at silly things like sports cars, or stock in companies which will never turn a profit, or cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if people are struggling to survive I find it hard to believe they will put confidence in magical internet money and instead I would tend to expect the price to fall as people who hold the coins try to convert it to currencies which can be used to buy food or pay rent (and many of the systems which on the surface would seem to be ways to do this in BTC are actually just convenient ways to wrap the conversion to USD).
This is why I view Bitcoin not as a hedge against economic collapse, but instead the ultimate bet on economic success leading into more and more of a "post-scarcity" world where people's basic needs are relatively easily met while competition is for status and luxuries.
In such a world, I think NYAN also can find a place, as I think we've got a charming meme. While we are certainly tiny and would need to ultimately grow more in order to be more broadly successful, we have demonstrated strength by merely surviving, and we have along the way also managed to slightly outperform relative to BTC (going from 1-3 satoshi to ~9 satoshi lately) as well as USD, carrying on from the rise BTC has had.
The inherent silliness of a coin based on the nyancat is useful in my opinion for helping to illustrate the view I have of cryptocurrency overall: that it's important to make it clear this is not a safe haven, but instead ridiculously silly gambling. That said, I do believe it's still possible for NYAN to have a serious and positive effect economically.
Conceptually, my view of it has been that money would flow into NYAN from those who essentially are donating it for fun (this has been my motivation and view of my purchases: I bought in originally in part to be able to say I was a "millionaire" in something ('nillionaire' in this case) and in part to motivate myself to continue with the coin), while those who are selling and receiving the money inherently have a greater need for it (since those who are buying should be those who have no need of the money, then those who are selling and presumably have some need for it obviously have the greater need). Thus it is a redistribution of wealth which should produce greater overall utility, and further, it is a purely voluntary and honest redistribution and therefore does not have the ethical problems of forced or fraudulent redistribution.
Further, I believe it should also be possible in theory for this to create additional wealth: if one person has extra money and doesn't see anything useful to do with it, they can 'throw it away' buying NYAN. Another person selling NYAN may see an opportunity for investment and use the proceeds to do so. If these investments tend to create value, then these exchanges create value. And if the investor later tosses some money back into buying NYAN, it may cause the cycle to continue.
Now, I want to make it clear this is my wishful thinking about how I would like NYAN to develop if it's successful. It's not a projection that this is in any way likely. Far more likely is we get bored and wander off and NYAN dies. Or we are foolish and wasteful with the proceeds we may someday get from selling our NYAN and the capital is wasted and NYAN dies. etc. There are far more ways for this to fail than to succeed.
But I like to imagine that if we build a wise community, that this fun money could actually be a way of efficiently reallocating excess capital among ourselves, and that if we are wise stewards of the capital we are entrusted with, that we may grow our wealth to the benefit of all, Nekonauts as well as everyone else.
It starts with a foundation of honesty and humility. This is why it's been so important to me for us to make it clear how improbable our success or even survival is, and to focus more on discouraging unwise gambling than on trying to attract buyers. We must be far-sighted and mindful of how to build a solid foundation for our own lives, and then on how we can serve others, instead of looking for short-term advantages.
Of course...talk is cheap, and I'm currently using the funds I got from Raiblocks / Nano for rather reckless gambling. But I did first make sure to pay off my debts, and I have just recently proudly, albeit painfully, paid my taxes on my windfalls. And while I'm gambling on the failure of Tesla, I do so justifying myself that I believe the actions of Musk and the company are dishonest and thus deserve failure, rather than that I am the caricature presented by bulls of an opportunistic liar trying to destroy something great. The bottom line for me is that my success or failure depends upon the accuracy of my judgement. While I may fail, I've been given an opportunity I may well never have otherwise had, and it has been due to the willingness of others to gamble on buying cryptocurrency. I've wasted plenty of money, but my goal overall is to be wise and multiply the capital I have, certainly to my own benefit first, but hopefully also to the benefit of others ultimately as well.
Such is life. We all have our cross to bear, but I hope we all also get some opportunities along the way too.
Never give up; never surrender!
submitted by coinaday to nyancoins [link] [comments]

Early Look at the Market – Tues 6.6.17 -**PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT**

J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Tues 6.6.17

find the other bits on /the_street, a /wallstreetbets subsidiary.
PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT

Morning Levels

Trading Update

Top Headlines for Tuesday

Company-specific news update for Mon night.

Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon June 5

US – economic growth, monetary policy

Europe

Tech Events – calendar of events coming up over the next few weeks

Full catalyst list

  • Thurs June 8 – China May imports/exports (Wed night/Thurs morning)
  • Thurs June 8 – German industrial production for Apr. 2amET.
  • Thurs June 8 – ECB meeting (7:45amET statement, 8:30amET press conf.).
  • Thurs June 8 – analyst meetings: AZPN, SYMC
  • Thurs June 8 – earnings before the open: Dell, SJM
  • Thurs June 8 – earnings after the close: CLDR, Hudson’s Bay, PAY
  • Thurs June 8 - Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference. June 6-9. NYC.
  • Thurs June 8 - REITWeek: NAREIT Investor Forum. June 6-8. NYC.
  • Fri June 9 – China May CPI/PPI (Thurs night/Fri morning)
  • Fri June 9 – German imports/exports for Apr. 2amET.
  • Fri June 9 – US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Apr. 10amET.
  • Fri June 9 - Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference. June 6-9. NYC.
  • Mon June 12 – earnings after the close: SAIC
  • Tues June 13 – Eurozone ZEW survey expectations for June. 5amET.
  • Tues June 13 – German ZEW survey results for June. 5amET.
  • Tues June 13 – US PPI for May. 8:30amET.
  • Tues June 13 – Morgan Stanley Financials Conf. June 13-14.
  • Tues June 13 – analyst meetings: PSTG
  • Tues June 13 – earnings after the close: HRB
  • Tues June 13 – Citigroup Industrials Conf. June 13-14. Boston.
  • Tues June 13 - Morgan Stanley Financials Conf. June 13-14.
  • Wed June 14 – China May retail sales, FAI, and IP (Tues night/Wed morning)
  • Wed June 14 – Eurozone industrial production for Apr and Q1 employment data. 5amET.
  • Wed June 14 – US CPI and retail sales for May. 8:30amET.
  • Wed June 14 – US business inventories for Apr. 10amET.
  • Wed June 14 – Fed decision (2pmET statement; 2:30pmET press conf.).
  • Wed June 14 – analyst meetings: Deutsche Boerse, MAT
  • Wed June 14 – earnings after the close: JBL
  • Wed June 14 - Citigroup Industrials Conf. June 13-14. Boston.
  • Wed June 14 - Morgan Stanley Financials Conf. June 13-14.
  • Thurs June 15 – Eurozone trade balance for Apr. 5amET.
  • Thurs June 15 – US Empire Manufacturing for June. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs June 15 – US import price index for May.
  • Thurs June 15 – US industrial production for May. 9:15amET.
  • Thurs June 15 – NAHB housing market index for June. 10amET.
  • Thurs June 15 – earnings before the open: KR
  • Thurs June 15 – earnings after the close: FNSR
  • Fri June 16 – Eurozone May new auto registrations. 2amET.
  • Fri June 16 – Eurozone labor costs for Q1 and CPI for May. 5amET.
  • Fri June 16 – BOJ rate decision (Thurs night/Fri morning)
  • Fri June 16 – US housing starts/building permits for May. 8:30amET.
  • Fri June 16 – US Michigan Confidence for June. 10amET.
  • Fri June 16 – analyst meetings: GLW
  • Mon June 19 – China May property prices (Sun night/Mon morning)
  • Mon June 19 – Eurozone construction output for Apr. 5amET.
  • Tues June 20 – Fed speakers: Kaplan
  • Tues June 20 – analyst meetings: ADI, EXLS, GE (at Paris Airshow)
  • Tues June 20 – earnings after the close: ADBE, FDX
  • Wed June 21 – US existing home sales for May. 10amET.
  • Wed June 21 – earnings before the open: KMX
  • Wed June 21 – earnings after the close: ORCL
  • Thurs June 22 – ECB publishes economic bulletin. 4amET.
  • Thurs June 22 – Eurozone consumer confidence for June. 10amET.
  • Thurs June 22 – US FHFA home prices for Apr. 9amET.
  • Thurs June 22 – analyst meetings: V
  • Fri June 23 – Eurozone flash PMIs for June. 4amET.
  • Fri June 23 – US flash PMIs for June. 9:45amET.
  • Fri June 23 – US new home sales for May. 10amET.
  • Fri June 23 – Fed speakers: Mester
  • Tues June 27 – China May industrial profits (Mon night/Tues morning)
  • Wed June 28 – earnings before the open: MON
submitted by SIThereAndThere to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

1% Bitcoin No Longer ‘Crazy’ for Portfolios, Says Morgan ... Bitcoin Drops 5%  Is There Any More Downside? - YouTube Bitcoin at $12,000! Protect your downside!!!! Expecting some more DOWNSIDE in Bitcoin in the near term. Let's look at it. Bearish Bitcoin Downside Targets TA. Plus, THE BIGGEST SIGN That Altcoin Season Is Starting!

“This means bitcoin has enormous upside potential if it can capture even a small fraction of traditional markets. This asymmetry makes Bitcoin appealing to investors who are willing to risk a small amount of investment capital for the opportunity of an outsized return.” The fund charges no management fee, but rather a 20 percent performance fee charged on spot outperformance — with ... Bitcoin like any other cryptocurrency has advantages and disadvantages. So, there is a downside of Bitcoin problems. Wallet is poorly protected from attacks . By default Bitcoin wallet isn't encrypted. For this reason, it becomes an easy prey to scams. However, the latest version of Bitcoin clients already contain codes for purse data ... Bitcoin's price volatility reaches 6-year high. The upward momentum of cryptocurrencies can create enormous returns on investment, but the downside risk is substantial. The rationale is to capture large gains when equities rise and rely on appreciating bond prices to protect their downside when markets correct. It is hard to argue with the results. The 60/40 ... BITCOIN CANNABIS CRYPTOCURRENCY ETFS EARNINGS FIXED INCOME. FUNDS. FUTURES OPTIONS. RATINGS. REITS. STOCKS. Check a Fund's Downside or Upside Capture Ratio . To avoid painful surprises, mutual ...

[index] [45251] [46201] [49298] [35733] [28497] [37023] [46502] [29302] [35468] [23314]

1% Bitcoin No Longer ‘Crazy’ for Portfolios, Says Morgan ...

Expecting some more DOWNSIDE in Bitcoin in the near term. Let's look at it. Jim of All Trades. Loading... Unsubscribe from Jim of All Trades? Cancel Unsubscribe. Working... Subscribe Subscribed ... In this video I will go over the concept of risk to reward ration in trading. You need to use stop loss orders reduce your risk when trading and I Will explain to you why. #bitcoin #crypto #cryptocurrencies Want to earn $100 of ETH? Follow the steps on this tweet! 🦊 https://twitter.com/Nicholas_Merten/status/1321214466055426048... Bearish Bitcoin Downside Targets TA. Plus, THE BIGGEST SIGN That Altcoin Season Is Starting! ... Daily Ten minute report on bitcoin price today followed by live Q and A. Let’s compare our four ... This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue

#